1. Essential Trading Logic for Beginners
- 7×24 Hour Non-stop Market: The other side of flexible trading is the need to keep an eye on the market. Beginners can easily fall into blind following due to 'anytime operations.'
- Choose Trading Methods: Spot trading is suitable for practice (low risk to earn the spread), while contracts come with leverage (high returns but depend on hardcore skills; beginners should be cautious).
- Fee Trap: Leverage trading has higher fees, and there are significant differences in rules across platforms. Always calculate costs before placing orders.
- T+0 Mode Double-edged Sword: Buying and selling anytime seems free, but it can easily lead to frequent operations, increasing costs and causing a chaotic mindset.
- No Limits on Price Fluctuation = High Risk: Under stimulus from news, prices may skyrocket or plummet. Beginners should avoid gambling on 'catching trends'; first, learn to observe.
- Freedom to Withdraw but Be Cautious: Wallet assets can be withdrawn at any time (zero fees), but losing the private key = assets are lost, so ensure safe storage.
2. Four Foundations that Must be Solidified Before Trading
1. Understand News Impact: Major news is a catalyst for market movements; direction of rise or fall needs independent judgment. Beginners are advised to 'stay put' before news is confirmed.
2. Master the Technical Aspects: Moving averages, KDJ, Bollinger Bands, candlesticks, volume-price indicators require long-term accumulation. Develop a study plan to tackle them one by one, avoid greed and haste.
3. Develop a Trading Plan: Frequent trading = paying fees + chaotic mindset. Rational layout is more important than 'itchy hands' operations.
4. Stick to Risk Control Bottom Line: Set stop-loss and take-profit levels (automatically close positions at set points), control position sizes - only those who can manage positions are true survivors.
3. Candlestick Analysis: Core techniques from a single candlestick to patterns
Candlestick analysis originated from the Japanese rice market, and in cryptocurrency markets, the colors are reversed: red for a drop, green for a rise (internationally accepted rule). A single candlestick has three points to consider:
- Bullish and Bearish Define Direction: Bullish candlestick indicates upward sentiment, bearish indicates downward sentiment, representing short-term victory or defeat.
- Entity Determines Momentum: The larger the entity, the stronger the momentum (e.g., large bullish candlestick = strong bullish sentiment).
- Shadow Line Indicates Reversal: Long upper shadow = strong resistance above, long lower shadow = strong support below.
14 Core Single Candlestick Patterns:
- Long Candlestick without Shadows: Absolute dominance of bulls or bears, appears at the beginning or end of a trend (e.g., large bullish candlestick at the bottom = reversal signal).
- Candlestick with Shadows: Long upper shadow indicates bearish sentiment, long lower shadow indicates bullish sentiment. Must be judged in context (e.g., long upper shadow at high = top warning).
- Doji: Indicates balance between bulls and bears; when appearing at high or low levels, it is likely to signal a reversal. Wait for confirmation from subsequent large bullish or bearish candlesticks.
- T-Shape / ⊥-Shape Line: Signals of reversal at bottoms or tops; long upper shadow on the ⊥-shape indicates strong bearish sentiment.
- One-word Line: Price limits are locked, one side completely controls the market.
Key Combination Pattern - V-shaped Reversal:
A sudden good news after a sharp drop, causing a quick price rebound forming a 'V' shape, is a strong bullish signal. However, it's hard to predict in advance; beware of breaking steep trend lines, as reversals often come with violent fluctuations.
4. 3 Warning Candlestick Signals: Avoid risks in advance
- Inverted Hammer (Bottom Warning): Appears at low levels, long upper shadow, small body, indicating the main force is testing the waters; must wait for a large bullish candlestick to confirm before entering.
- Hanging Man (Top Warning): Appears at high levels, long lower shadow but small body (bullish line is riskier), indicating that the main force is inducing buying but momentum is weakening; must exit decisively.
- Doji (Reversal Warning): Appears at high or low levels indicating a turning point; if followed by large bearish or bullish candlesticks, confirms the top or bottom pattern.
5. Position Management: Survive to make big money
- Olive-shaped Adding Position Method: Experiment with small positions in the early stages of an uptrend, double the position after making a profit, and fully follow in once the trend is confirmed (light on both ends, heavy in the middle), balancing risk and reward.
- Dynamic Adjustment Method: Adjust positions based on market volatility (position size = acceptable loss / volatility). Lighten up during high volatility and moderately increase positions during low volatility.
- Beware of Gambling-like Strategies:
- Martingale Method (double up after losing): Relies on substantial funds to bear losses, ordinary people risk liquidation.
- Anti-Martingale Method (double up after winning): One loss can wipe out all profits, be cautious.
- Special Situations for Adding Positions: When the strategy's win rate is extremely high (e.g., price breaks through a key moving average confirmed by historical data), temporary position enlargement is acceptable, but strict stop-loss must be set.
- Diversifying Risk is Better than Single Position Increase: Cross-market and multi-strategy allocation is more prudent than stubbornly sticking to one position increase method, especially when capital is not large; avoid 'putting all eggs in one basket.'
6. Practical Tips from a 10-Year Veteran (Must Read and Save)
1. With funds under 200,000, capturing a major surge once a year is enough; don't bet heavily every day.
2. Practice with a Demo Account First: If you can afford losses, you can learn; a single failure in a real account can lead to complete exit.
3. Good news turning into bad: If significant good news isn't sold on the same day, it must be sold when it opens high the next day.
4. Risk Avoidance during Holidays: Historical patterns show that reducing positions or remaining flat before holidays can largely avoid declines.
5. Mid to Long-term Strategies: Keep enough cash, sell high, buy back on dips, and roll over operations to reduce costs.
6. Short-term Focus on Activity: Choose coins with high volatility and volume; avoid stagnant ones.
7. Corresponding Rhythm of Price Movements: Slow declines lead to slow rebounds; rapid declines often result in quick rebounds; go with the trend.
8. Admit Mistakes: Stop-loss is a lifeline; preserving capital is essential for any chance of recovery.
9. Short-term Focus on 15-Minute Candlesticks: Use KDJ indicators to find buy and sell points; it's more precise than looking at daily candlesticks.
10. Quality over Quantity in Techniques: Mastering 1-2 methods is more effective than learning a bunch superficially.
The cryptocurrency market has high risks and volatility; the above techniques need to be honed through practical experience. Remember: respect the market, control desires, and survive to wait for your own 'ten-thousand-fold opportunity'.#CPI数据来袭 $BTC $ETH