**#CPIWatch**:

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## 🇺🇸 US Consumer Price Index – June 2025

* **Overall Inflation (CPI)** rose by **0.3% month-on-month** in June, raising the annual inflation to **2.7%**, compared to 2.4% in May.

* **Core Inflation (Core CPI)** – which excludes food and energy prices – rose by **0.2% month-on-month** to reach **2.9% annually**.

* The effects of **tariff-induced inflation** are starting to show in clothing, furniture, and durable goods prices, while housing and service costs remain relatively low.

* **Impact on Monetary Policy:** Price increases resulting from tariffs and the rising inflation rate have reduced the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates before **September**.

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## 🌐 Global Outlook

* In **OECD** countries, overall inflation slowed to **4.0% year-on-year** in May – the lowest level in over 4 years, while core inflation was 4.4%.

* In **India**, consumer inflation fell to **2.10% year-on-year** in June – the lowest level in over 6 years, due to a decrease in food prices by -1.06%.

* SBI Bank of India expects the consumer price index to reach record low levels in July, which may provide the central bank room for further monetary easing.

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## 🔍 What to Watch For?

1. **CPI Report for July and August:** The effects of tariffs are expected to become clearer as old stock runs out – monthly pressures are likely to remain above 0.3%.

2. **Federal Reserve Policy:** The market does not expect a rate cut before September, as long as inflation remains above the 2% target.

3. **The difference between goods and services inflation:** Rental and service prices remain stable, helping to curb overall inflation at present.

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### 📝 Summary Table – US CPI Index for June

| Standard | Monthly Change | Yearly Change |

| ------------------------------- | -------------------- | ------------- |

| Overall Inflation | +0.3% | +2.7% |

| Core Inflation | +0.2% | +2.9% |

| Affected Goods by Tariffs | High (Clothing, Furniture) | — |

| Rental and Service Costs | Low | — |

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📅 **Summary:**

Inflation in the United States is experiencing a slight increase driven by tariffs, but the Fed does not seem in a hurry to cut rates. August data will be crucial. Globally, trends vary: inflation is declining in India, while developed countries are experiencing gradual slowdowns.

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