Technical aspect: 125,000 USD is the dividing line between 'heaven or hell'.
Bitcoin's latest price is stuck around 125,000 USD, hiding a long-term trend line extending from the 2021 high! It's like a climber stuck on the 'second step' of the north face of Everest; pushing up means 'seeing all the mountains', but sliding down could mean falling directly into a crevasse. More critically, the RSI indicator is hovering around 60, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for a 'reason to explode'—either break through 125,000 and directly surge to 150,000, or fall below 118,000 and directly retrace to the psychological barrier of 100,000.
Historical case: Before the collapse of the bull market in 2021, there were also similar signals.
Do you remember how Bitcoin fell after reaching 69,000 USD in 2021? At that time, it was also stuck near the long-term trend line, with the RSI similarly hovering around 60, and it ended up halving to 30,000! Doesn't the current situation seem like 'history repeating itself'? What's more heartbreaking is that if it falls below 100,000 this time, it might directly crash to 50,000. Why? Because before the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in 2023, the coin price also retraced to the 50% golden ratio level.
Personal opinion: Don't be swayed by the 'bull market illusion'.
This wave of market movement is somewhat similar to the trend after the halving in 2020—institutions lay in wait first, followed by retail investors. But Bitcoin has a fatal problem: every time it hits a new high, it must wash out the 'leveraged positions'. Current on-chain data shows that the leverage ratio on exchanges has soared to 2021 levels. Once the trend line is broken, a liquidation wave could directly crash the coin price down to 50,000!
If tonight's CPI data exceeds expectations, it may temporarily drop to 100,000, but don't panic; Bitcoin ETF funds are providing support. But remember: this wave is a 'policy bull + institutional bull', and the pullback is just giving tickets to those who haven't boarded.
Will Bitcoin learn from 2021 and directly halve? Is 125,000 USD really a 'golden pit' or a 'mass grave'? If you have a different opinion, feel free to discuss in the comments.
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