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📊 CPI Watch – July 15, 2025

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is dropping today, and all eyes are on how inflation is reacting to recent tariff hikes and broader economic shifts:

🔍 Key Forecasts
- Headline CPI (YoY): Expected to rise 2.6%, up from 2.4% in May
- Headline CPI (MoM): Forecasted at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% last month
- Core CPI (YoY): Projected at 2.9%, slightly above May’s 2.8%
- Core CPI (MoM): Also expected to tick up to 0.3%, from 0.1%

🧾 What’s Driving It
- Tariffs: President Trump’s new duties (20–50%) on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the EU are starting to show up in prices—especially in core goods like apparel and used cars
- Business Pressure: Companies are finding it harder to absorb import costs, which could lead to more price hikes over the next few months
- Fed’s Dilemma: With the July FOMC meeting approaching, the Fed is watching closely. Markets expect rates to hold steady, but a cut could come as early as September if inflation cools

🧠 What to Watch Next
- Core goods inflation: Think cars, electronics, and clothing—these are most sensitive to tariffs
- Food prices: Especially imported fruits and vegetables, which can’t be stockpiled
- Fed commentary: Multiple officials are speaking today, and their tone could shift depending on this CPI print.