The Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates due to concerns that tariffs will push up inflation, but if the June CPI remains moderate, it may invite stronger criticism from Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts and criticized Chairman Powell.

The money market expects only a 5% probability of a rate cut in July, with a more likely first cut in September, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year. However, due to tariffs and the resilience of the labor market, the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 65% to 60%. The June CPI data is particularly important.