Bitcoin failed to continue its strong rally, and after dropping below the $122,000 mark last night (14), it further fell below $118,000 this morning (15). Even the Wall Street investment firm 'Bernstein' stated that the upcoming cryptocurrency bull market will be a 'long and arduous war of attrition,' but remains optimistic that Bitcoin will reach the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
The Bernstein analysis team, led by Gautam Chhugani, points out that the driving force behind this round of market activity is no longer just retail investors chasing prices, but large institutions entering the market comprehensively. 'Our confidence in blockchain and digital assets has never been so strong.'
Analysts explain that unlike past short-term trends dominated by retail investors, the current cryptocurrency bull market is mainly driven by institutional buying, benefiting from an increasingly clear regulatory environment and government support.
The Bernstein analysis team believes that blockchain is gradually building a new generation of financial systems native to the internet. The stablecoin market size has approached $250 billion and has gained adoption in cross-border payment fields. Currently, there are about 50 million global cryptocurrency wallet users, and it is expected that as banks and enterprises accelerate integration and application, this number will move towards hundreds of millions of users. 'Real-World Asset Tokenization' is seen as the next mainstream trend.
Bernstein further analyzes that as the pace of institutional adoption accelerates, Bitcoin will increasingly solidify its position as 'the global hard currency reserve asset.' Currently, the total assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $150 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT being the largest at $84 billion. At the same time, the capital allocation of firms like Strategy continues to grow, laying a more solid structural allocation foundation for Bitcoin's long-term value and supporting Bernstein's expectation of a $200,000 target price.
The analysis team points out that the United States is actively promoting cryptocurrency legislation such as the (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act). Regulatory clarity is expected to accelerate industry adoption. At that time, companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood will become core compliance targets in the market: Circle will remain the leader in the regulated stablecoin field, while Coinbase and Robinhood will play key roles as trading and token settlement platforms. With regulations in place, the U.S. cryptocurrency market share is expected to further increase, with trading volume returning from overseas exchanges to the domestic market and promoting the expansion of the derivatives market (futures and options).
Bernstein is also optimistic that an institutional-level asset management ecosystem has already formed, starting with Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and is expected to expand to include funds covering Solana (SOL) and even the top 20 cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, the tokenization of financial assets (including money markets, stocks, deposits, and credit) is expected to achieve a fully on-chain capital market and enable 24/7 instant settlement and composability.
Bernstein states that stablecoins are crucial for cross-border B2B and remittance payments. As distribution and compliance frameworks mature, stablecoins are expected to gradually expand into mainstream payment fields.
Bernstein emphasizes that the three major trends of 'stablecoins, tokenization, and blockchain application landing' will jointly drive the continuous growth of public chains such as Ethereum and Solana, further enhancing the investment value of Ether and SOL, and bringing more traffic and fee income to trading platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood.
Gautam Chhugani writes:
Some may doubt that this is just another wave of a bull market (like the 2021 bull market), but we believe the market has moved beyond the stage of 'belief alone.' This time, we see practical applications landing, policy endorsements, and deep integration with traditional finance. We believe this time is worth betting on.
It is reported that Gautam Chhugani personally holds multiple long positions in cryptocurrencies, and Bernstein and its affiliated companies may also receive compensation for investment banking services provided by Circle. Some of its affiliated units also act as market makers or liquidity providers for stocks like Robinhood and Coinbase.
