CPI Day Cheat Sheet

June U.S. CPI prints at 8:30 a.m. ET on 15 July. Markets expect headline YoY 2.6 % (vs 2.4 % in May) and core MoM 0.3 % (vs 0.1 %). Because consensus is already tilted toward a rebound, a mere in-line print could feel like relief and lift stocks and bonds, while a 0.4 %+ core surprise would revive hawkish bets and send the dollar and yields higher. History shows the first price spike often reverses within 30 minutes unless the data are a genuine outlier.#CPIWatch #USCryptoWeek