Market analysis for $ETH 7.15, Ethereum faces short-term correction pressure, but what conditions are needed for a "large-scale correction" like 15%? Let's look at the following key judgment bases and operational suggestions.
Core technical signal analysis:
1. Short selling momentum is increasing but not out of control:
MACD worsened with green bars expanding to -8.53, showing strong downward momentum in the short term.
RSI is oversold at 17.17, but no bottom divergence has formed, and the price has broken below the lower bound of 2957.20 (current price 2954.2), opening up the downward channel.
2. Key support and resistance:
Price 2930, position at the bottom from 2 hours ago, the last line of defense for bulls.
Price 2850, position at the weekly MA60, strong support.
Price 3015, position at rebound resistance, the pressure point of the Bollinger middle track.
3. Volume divergence suggests limited downward space:
Trading volume has shrunk, current Vol 42,642 < MA5 28,472, insufficient volume for a 1.5 times drop.
Main force movement, large on-chain transfers show whales placing buy orders around 2950, support strength +1.
Macro factors of long and short positions:
Positive factors:
1. Stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong bring in incremental funds.
2. Favorable policies from the review of US cryptocurrency legislation.
3. ETH staking rate surpasses 26%, indicating deflation.
Negative factors:
1. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped to 68%.
2. US tech stocks are retracing, Nasdaq -1.2%.
3. CPI inflation expectations are heating up, results to be announced tonight.
The macro environment supports ETH's medium to long-term strength, while the short-term correction is mainly due to technical adjustments and market risk aversion sentiment.
A "large correction" needs to meet the following conditions simultaneously, pay close attention to:
1. 20:30 US June CPI data > 3.3% is negative, < 2.9% is positive.
2. 22:00 Fed Chair speech, hawkish remarks trigger a decline.
3. The following day at 03:00, Fed meeting minutes, if they suggest delaying rate cuts, it will be negative.
4. Ethereum volume breaks below 2850.
Last night, I took a short position at 3060, which aligned well with my expected trend, correcting to around 2980 followed by a surge, then another correction in the late night, and another rise in the morning, closing all positions around 2940 around 11:50.
Now, with the CPI data upcoming, friends who want to follow the strategy must not miss it. Ethereum has already been positioned, expecting a fluctuation of 150–200 points. ⬇️ Comment 111, and I will update the entry points and timing.
Do not frequently open orders, only do trend orders and plan ahead, you will go further on the path of trading. Follow me to avoid getting lost, I will teach you how to learn to open orders, stable profits, and reasonable entry timing, grasping the big market movements.
