Today confirmed what many have long suspected: Russia is entering a terminal phase. Putin, increasingly isolated and presiding over a cannibalized economy, is watching his alliances crumble and financial reserves dry up. The brief success in playing geopolitical chess with the U.S. has given way to strategic failure.
Trump’s earlier, more flexible proposals are gone. In their place, Putin now faces a heavily armed Ukraine, a reindustrializing European defense sector, and a society under strain. The war machine is running, but at the cost of Russia's long-term survival.
This isn't the slow collapse of the USSR — it’s more like 1917 all over again: looming chaos, potential civil unrest, and no clear off-ramp. China won't bail Moscow out either — not at the price Russia would have to pay.
Ukraine has exhausted the remnants of the Soviet arsenal. Forty years of stockpiled weapons have been burned through in 40 months. Now, the war is fueled by modern, NATO-standard systems — and Russia is losing ground.
The key question: What will Putin’s downfall look like?
Think 1944 — the writing was on the wall for the Axis powers, yet more than a year of brutal conflict followed. Dictators rarely quit quietly. The real risk now is how far Russians will go in following a leader heading for clear defeat.
The collapse seems inevitable — but the path there could shake markets, geopolitics, and global energy flows.