At 3 AM, a screenshot in the community pierced everyone like a sharp blade—someone invested 500,000 last year, and now only has 80,000, nearly halved. Meanwhile, the myth of the hundredfold PEPE coin in the adjacent group stirs people's hearts. But it must be clear: this round of the altcoin market is no longer what it used to be. I repeatedly advise those around me that if they still use the strategies from 2021, it is no different from digging their own graves.
Why has the era of easy profits gone away?
The number of projects is experiencing explosive growth. Nowadays, over 500 new altcoins are added every month, which is five times that of 2021. It's like a quiet vegetable market suddenly being flooded with 100 cabbage stalls; with supply outstripping demand, even the best cabbage is bound to rot on the ground, making it naturally more difficult to profit.
There is a severe shortage of funding. The current total market value of cryptocurrencies is 2.5 trillion, yet it has to 'feed' over 30,000 projects. It's like three bowls of rice divided among 300 people, with the vast majority unable to even drink the rice broth; most altcoins struggle to attract funding, and the upward momentum is weak.
The strategies of major players are continuously upgrading. I once tracked a trader who focused on only about three coins for key speculation, while other altcoins were merely smokescreens—deliberately creating anxiety of 'missing out on wealth,' enticing retail investors to take over, only for the trader to profit and exit.
Three golden rules for discovering potential altcoins:
Deeply analyze on-chain data. Use professional tools like Nansen to closely monitor changes in holdings; for instance, before SOL surged, the number of addresses holding over 100,000 coins increased by 37%, which was a signal of institutional entry, like dark clouds gathering, foreshadowing an impending storm.
Accurately identify genuine ecological projects. The core is to look at two main indicators: actual user count (users are the foundation of project sustainability) and developer activity (which can be assessed through GitHub code submission volume). There was a DeFi project that, despite stable prices, saw a steady increase in code submissions for six consecutive months; a project with developers continuously delving deep is bound to explode, it's just a matter of time.
Focus on the 'phoenix reborn' coins. Pay more attention to altcoins that have dropped more than 80% and have been stagnant for over half a year. They are like springs compressed to their limits; once the market warms up, the rebound will be astonishing.
In the altcoin market, the key to making money is not in selecting many options, but in restraint. Be sure to set a stop-loss point in advance and strictly enforce it. If you can survive in this brutal market until the next bull market, you have already outperformed 90% of people.
