Technical Analysis: Main Force Card Reconstruction
The support level at 2920 USD has a real increase of 3600 ETH from BlackRock, valued at 8.65 million USD, rather than the market rumor of 21,000 coins. On-chain data shows that there are ladder buy orders in the 2880-2920 range, with the largest single order amounting to 12,000 ETH, approximately 35 million USD.
The resistance zone at 3050 USD has a total sell order volume of 180,000 ETH in the 3030-3050 range on OKX and Huobi platforms. Iceberg orders from market makers do exist, but the pressure order volume has been reduced by 30% compared to before.
News: CPI Data Correction
If tonight's CPI inflation data ≤ 3.1%, with a 30% probability, ETH may break through 3050 USD, triggering 210 million USD in short position liquidation.
If inflation ≥ 3.5%, with a 40% probability, ETH may flash crash to 2920 USD, but there is on-chain support from BlackRock that can be traced in the 2880-2900 range.
If the data meets expectations of 3.2%-3.4%, with a 30% probability, the market will be trapped in the 2880-3020 USD range, creating a door-shaking oscillation.
Practical Strategy: Data Calibration
Buying the Dip: Place limit orders when prices drop to 2880-2900 due to negative CPI, set stop loss at 2850, and reduce half of the position when rebounding to 2950.
Breakout Pursuit: After breaking through 3020 USD with volume, chase the rise, targeting 3050. Here, for every 1% increase, the short position liquidation amount decreases to 9,000 ETH.
Sideways Strategy: Adjust dual options to buy 3000 USD call options while selling 2850 USD put options to hedge risks against time value gains.
On-Chain Signal Update
The largest single withdrawal amount by a whale is 38,000 ETH transferred to Lido staking.
Grayscale ETHE negative premium narrows to 0.8%.
Technical upgrades partially delete false information, Pectra upgrade has not confirmed Verkle tree characteristics.
Final Strategy
Clear leveraged positions before CPI announcement, ambush spot positions at 2880-2920, and pursue the trend after breaking 3020. In a volatile market, use a dual option strategy to gain time value. Pay attention to whale dynamics on-chain, reply 'Bottom Support' to receive (BlackRock ETH cost tracker).
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If we don't pay attention to the convergence, it will explode soon.