The big bull market has started, BTC hit a new high today, reaching $122,000, and ETH has also reached the position of $3,060. The reason is what we have mentioned many times before, which is the continuous new highs in the US stock market. Currently, the crypto market is following the US stock market, which may have some lag, but generally, that's the case (see the previous article from July 1st analyzing how cold the current market is from a data perspective? And I am optimistic about the subsequent long bull market!). The current situation is that when the US stock market rises, the crypto market does not dare to fall; when the US stock market falls, the crypto market does not dare to rise!
So how much longer can the US stock market rise? I don’t know. If viewed from a monthly perspective, the US stock market has been rising for 20 consecutive years, so do not doubt the US stock market. If Buffett were in China, he wouldn’t become a 'stock god'; he would probably only be a fraud. So fish where there are fish!
On Saturday, I posted ETH ETF data charts on several social platforms, telling everyone not to short. Shorting in this kind of market is 'going against the trend'; do not make such foolish moves in a bull market. I also mentioned that without a macro background for fundamental analysis, analyzing any indicators blindly is useless. On Saturday, I saw many KOLs analyzing K-lines, various MACD, MA, and blindly making analyses, saying the market was going to fall and encouraging shorting. The result, as you can see, is that just because of new highs, they suggested shorting, which is no different from gambling! You must follow the trend! Understand the macro environment and major variables!
At the beginning of July, we analyzed the market data at that time, so now let's compare and see how the current crypto market data looks.
1. Overall market trading volume
Currently, the daily trading volume on spot exchanges is 44 billion, an increase of 57% from 28 billion on July 1. It seems that the market has surged, but it is still far from the peaks of 130 billion in 2024 and 160 billion in 2021. This means that the bull market has just begun!
The data from the contract market has also increased by almost 50% compared to before, with BN at 80 billion and OK at 36 billion.
2. ETF Data
ETF data can be said to have triggered explosive growth, whether for BTC or ETH. Compared to the data from July 1, the peak data for BTC-ETF has doubled, and the two days of data on July 10-11 directly netted inflows of $1 billion. This shows that retail investors in the US stock market are optimistic about the subsequent market. Although the daily trading volume of BTC is over $10 billion (spot), no one would short against the $1 billion net inflow of ETF, which already accounts for 10% of the total trading volume.
Below is the ETF data for ETH. There has been a net inflow for the past 30 days with no outflows, and from July 9-11, the volume increased for three consecutive days, reaching a peak of $300 million. It is worth noting that the previous ETF data for ETH was quite bleak, with daily inflows of just tens of millions.
We previously analyzed that the ETF data for ETH is about 10 times worse than that for BTC; it has currently only a threefold gap, indicating that the market has begun to rush to buy ETH, and the price of ETH has indeed reflected this.
ETH has also been receiving constant favorable news. Previously, it was mentioned that Sharplink has started learning from MicroStrategy and began accumulating ETH, and now Sharplink is continually buying. It has already purchased $600 million worth, while the market cap of Sharplink is only $1.4 billion. Since Sharplink began buying ETH, the stock price has risen from $2 to $21, a tenfold increase.
In comparison to MicroStrategy, MicroStrategy currently has a market cap of $118 billion, with a BTC value of $70 billion. So at the moment, the cost-performance ratio of sbet (sharplink) is not high, unless it starts a strategy of taking off with the left foot and stepping on the right foot.
However, in any case, this is good news for ETH, as a listed company has publicly accumulated ETH.
3. Fear and Greed Index
Currently, the Fear and Greed Index has reached 70. Is it high? For a bull market, it is not considered high; it reached over 80 in 2024, so there is still some room for growth. But it is crucial to remember that a bull market will not wait for you for long; it always arrives quietly and leaves amidst much noise. Therefore, my advice is not to leave the circle; otherwise, you will not feel the bull has already arrived!
Currently, the altcoin season index is at 33, which can only be said that the altcoin season has just begun because Bitcoin has not been consolidating, so there are still opportunities.
Finally, there are a few things I want to sync with everyone:
1. Recently, there have been rampant rumors about Powell resigning, but there is currently no official evidence or documents, so do not be misled; there is a lot of false information in the market.
2. Currently, there is no clear statement regarding interest rate cuts, so do not be misled; we must wait for the Federal Reserve's official announcement. If this favorable news does not materialize, the bull market will not end!
3. Let's talk about our previous prediction (February 8, 2025 article - Trump's WLF urgently sold all ETH, estimated paper loss of 10%!). Previously, it was mentioned that the price at which WLFI buys back ETH must be $3,000 more expensive. On-chain data shows that there are currently $85 million in USDT sitting in WLFI's account, earning interest in AAVE, having only purchased $23 million of ETH. Here, I am not trying to emphasize how accurate my prediction was; I just want to use this example to tell you that even such smart institutions are losing money in swings, and you should listen to advice!
Finally, since the bull market began, friends who have not entered the market should hurry up. After four years of honing a sword, we have arrived at the moment of the final strike! However, if you miss this round of the bull market, let us wait and see!
