Today we will talk about two projects, one is Caldera-ERA, which just launched yesterday and is definitely a project to short. The second one is about the recent hot topic, Ethereum.
1. Caldera
Why is Caldera considered an ordinary VC project that definitely needs to be shorted?
First, let's look at its introduction.
Caldera is a Web3 infrastructure project focused on Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS), with the core mission of lowering the threshold for deploying application-specific blockchains (i.e., rollups) and empowering developers to quickly launch high-performance, customizable Layer 2 networks.
I also checked the official website; it is currently transitioning to become a Metalayer and cross-chain interoperability platform.
If you don't feel anything from the description above, it shows that your research foundation is not enough! In my opinion, this RAAS and cross-chain interoperability have no innovation; RAAS has been talked about before with altlayer, and then everyone can look at the performance of altlayer. And why is RAAS considered a bit of a joke? OP released an OP stack, making it easy to create an L2, and what is the point of creating an L2 now? TELL ME!
The second cross-chain interoperability, which has been talked about endlessly in 2024, has seen many cross-chain interoperability projects such as Alex, Chainflip, even big names like LayerZero and Wormhole. Let's take a look at the price performance of these projects.
Financing situation
In February 2023, completed $9 million in seed round financing, investors include Sequoia Capital, Dragonfly Capital, 1kx, Ethereal Ventures, Neo, etc.
In July 2024, completed $15 million Series A financing, with investors including Founders Fund (Peter Thiel), Dragonfly, Sequoia, etc.; total financing of $25 million.
So from the perspective of financing scale, it's actually quite average!
Team situation
At least the team members are real names, and the founders are from Stanford University, but they don't have particularly outstanding resumes; I can only say they are quite average!
Token economics
The total token supply is 1 billion, currently 15% unlocked, current token price is $1.48, and the overall FDV is $1.48 billion. Can this thing really be worth $1.4 billion?
Token allocation is as follows: 32% investors, 14.75% team, 14.94% foundation, 21% community, 10% R&D, and 7% airdrop. In other words, 32% for investors, 7% for airdrop, and the remaining are all theirs! It's outrageous to take so much for themselves!
Token release is also over 5 years, with investors and the team unlocking after 1 year, but it doesn't matter because their foundation, R&D, and community unlock immediately.
So the overall guiding philosophy of such a trash project is to short! So when can we short?
If it falls below 1.26 in the figure below, it will be gone! Plus the project's dumping, this round of VC shares cannot be played, and I've said this many times already!
2. ETH
Now let's talk about ETH. The performance of ETH in the past few days has indeed been excellent. Currently, this trend is even stronger than the bull markets at the beginning and end of 2024, so this wave will likely break 4800. Why am I so confident? This is the top-level cognition of ETH.
First, let's look at the net inflow of ETF for ETH on July 16, which was $700 million in one day. What does this mean? It's equivalent to the buying volume of the previous month, comparable to BTC's daily buying volume.
What does it indicate?
This indicates that American retail investors/institutions are frantically buying, and they are buying at any cost, like a supermarket promotion where if you don’t buy, you won’t get it.
The second piece of news is that SharpLink stated in a supplemental filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday that its available common stock has increased from $1 billion initially submitted on May 30 to $5 billion. This means Sharplink needs to buy more than $4 billion worth of ETH, and if they buy it all, it is estimated to reach 1.25% of the total circulation. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy's 600,000 already accounts for 2.8% of the total supply.
However, many BTC addresses are inactive or lost, and the actual circulating supply is only about 5 to 7 million (according to Galssnode data). Even 10% of the circulating tokens can make a significant impact, so in the future, Sharplink will be the same!
Third, although ETH has recently surged, looking at this round of data, ETH's performance is still not enough because BTC has increased from 15,000 to 120,000, an 8-fold increase, while ETH has only risen from 800 to 3600, which is less than a 5-fold increase.
According to past data, each round of ETH's increase has exceeded that of BTC, so ETH is always referred to as benefiting from being Elrond.
In the 2021 bull market, ETH increased by 60 times, rising from a low of 80 to $4800, while BTC only increased by 20 times.
In the 2017 bull market, ETH increased by a thousand times. In 2014, Vitalik raised funds through crowdfunding (ICO) to officially launch the Ethereum project, raising a total of 31,529 BTC, worth about $18 million at the time. This ICO issued a total of about 60 million ETH, with the selling price of ETH initially being 1 BTC for 2000 ETH, gradually decreasing to 1 BTC for 1337 ETH.
Currently, one BTC exchanges for 30 ETH.
So in this round, I think the increase of ETH should not be lower than BTC; this pattern still holds true! What do you think?
#币安HODLer空投ERA
