$BTC remains above historical highs
ETH/BTC has broken a 4-year downtrend
RSI divergence
Retail and small coin indices have bottomed out
$BTC has been fluctuating between $98K-$110K for the past 3 months, bouncing back 3 times
Every time it rises, small coins go up by 10%, but every time it falls, they plummet by 60%. Everyone is tired of this volatility
Most people will see this as just another 'dead cat bounce' — but I believe this is a real breakout, and the small coin market will start to rise
Why?
Small coins have officially broken through the bottom
Yes, small coins have performed poorly over the past year — but the last drop was not just noise; it was the lowest point for most coins in 4 years
And this has changed everything
Previously, most small coins were unable to rise due to the oversupply and overvaluation left over from the previous bull market
Thus, they had no clear bottom and just kept falling
But now the situation has changed
Many new tokens have disappeared. The remaining ones are either established projects or new projects that have truly achieved product-market fit
All existing projects are now striving to demonstrate some value
They have finally formed a bottom, broken through previous lows, and changed the trend structure — maybe not fully bullish yet, but at least not bearish on lower time frames
Now, a perfect layout has formed, just like before, entering the cycle's repetition phase
Previous cycle highs:
- November 29, 2013 – $1,242
- December 17, 2017 – about $19k
- November 10, 2021 – about $69k
This means the next peak could be between November and December 2025 — so the cycle pattern is still valid
ETH has finally started to rise, outperforming BTC and SOL since the last drop:
$SOL: $100 → $164
$BTC: $75K → $118K
$ETH: $1.45K → $3K
Most people overlook this, but it's important
This is the first time in two years that ETH has shown true strength compared to mainstream coins
Why is this important?
The default cryptocurrency cycle structure is: BTC → ETH → ALTSZN
Throughout the cycle, BTC outperforms the market — but this situation is finally starting to change
We may be entering the second phase:
BTC.D is falling
Small coins are performing strongly
This is exactly why I sold 30% of my BTC and shifted to small coins
Not because I no longer believe in BTC's further upside potential — but because I believe in it. I want to gain leverage in the rise
I believe my small coin holdings will now outperform BTC
This means I can accumulate more Bitcoin through the rise of small coins
We have also welcomed very bullish macro news:
- No tariffs
- No world war
- 100% chance of rate cuts (possibly even twice)
All this creates ideal and obvious growth conditions
Main reason: 100% chance of rate cuts
Within the Fed, there are divisions — some members voted in favor of rate cuts
Meanwhile, Powell wants to maintain a flexible stance and avoid cutting rates too early
He commented something like 'Let's wait and study the data.'
But the key is that Trump needs rate cuts, which means rate cuts are certain
After all, Trump has previously even threatened to fire Powell
So what will rate cuts bring?
Two rate cuts will significantly weaken the dollar and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market
For cryptocurrencies — as a high-risk asset — this sounds very bullish
Therefore, combining all the factors I mentioned above, the current growth is inevitable
As for price targets, I personally would consider taking profit on the next 45% of my BTC position in the $135k–$140k range (25% will be held long-term)
It may go higher, but beyond this range, the risk-reward ratio will become unfavorable
In any case, I believe BTC.D will fall, and the small coin market will start to rise, so I will profit there
Clearly, I plan to buy back BTC. I will not leave the crypto market — because there is nowhere else that offers such high returns
I just believe we will get better entry points later — at that time I will buy back in and increase my total BTC holdings
There's no need to hold all assets forever
Take profits, take out some for living expenses, diversify, and re-enter at better prices
This is necessary, or you will miss everything
I ask myself a question:
"If BTC rises to $135K, will I still buy in with new funds?"
The answer is no
So I will lock in some profits and wait for a lower entry point
Final summary:
Those experienced investors who expect an altseason like in 2021 will likely lose all their funds.
The reason is, how can you expect a replay of the past when more and more tokens are unlocked and dispersed?
We are now in a completely different market structure.
So, you can only adapt; otherwise, you will incur losses.
Overall, don't mistakenly believe that the current price is a peak or an all-time high (ATH).
Stick to your plan and never invest more than you are willing to lose.
Adjust your portfolio to make it work for you, and remember to take profits in a timely manner.
This is how you maximize gains in this cycle.
If you don't have a strategy yet, here’s what you need to do:
- Risk management
- Portfolio construction
- How to find suitable altcoins
- Choose the right influencers
Strong recovery, doubling assets! Follow the rainy days, layout in advance, easily achieve big gains
Stay tuned: USUAL HIPPO
