Hello everyone, I am the class representative, an old hand in the crypto market for 8 years. Today, I want to casually talk about my views on the Pump.fun project.
The following content only represents personal views; they may not be accurate, just take a look.
Project fundamentals.
Pump.fun is a rare phenomenon-level project, which can be said to be the hottest project in the market after the Trump craze.
In its first year (from January 19, 2024, to January 19, 2025), the fee income is about 2,237,500 SOL, worth about $364 million; the total amount of SOL sold is about 1,790,000 SOL, with cashing out amounts around $360 million. The fee for the year 2025 is $511 million. The project team is making a fortune from the fees.
However, due to the diminishing profit effect of on-chain memes, market share has also been eroded by other platforms like Bonk, so issuing tokens became their logical choice.
This time, they raised $500 million, and it was completed in just 13 minutes; that's fast. But I keep thinking, if they had issued the tokens before Trump, the market might have given a higher valuation, and liquidity would have been better. Timing of token issuance is something many quality projects have missed, and the reasons remain unknown to us retail investors.
The project team previously mentioned airdrops, and many airdrop studios registered multiple accounts (including us). After the private placement was completed, there was no sign of the airdrop.
Deciding whether to participate.
Honestly, I didn't plan to rush in at first. Why?
Because for a new project, I haven't seen any particularly certain profit opportunities.
But then I thought about it; such a phenomenal project comes around once in many years, and participating with a small position to experience it is always fine.
Especially the words of my mentor awakened me: 'For projects with strong liquidity, the first step is to participate. If you don’t participate, there will be no “memory anchor.” Next time you encounter a similar situation, you’ll still be in the dark. Whether you make money or lose it, these experiences will turn into valuable lessons that can save you in critical moments or help you make a big profit.'
Deciding how to participate.
Having looked at many people's analyses, I lean towards two ways to participate.
1. Directly trade without hedging in advance
This method is to get in first and figure it out later; if it doesn't hit... then just accept it. If the price skyrockets after opening, then consider hedging. But at an opening price around 0.005, you definitely shouldn't rush into a hedge; the profit is too little, and there might be many uncontrollable factors. For example, if the pre-launch contracts keep pumping, the pressure on the hedging positions will be significant, or there could be exchange glitches. Tonight, those who tried to trade on exchanges like Bybit and Bitget couldn't get in due to exchange issues. Those who opened hedging positions early will be in a tough spot. Expecting to seek rights protection from the exchange? Don't hold your breath; casinos don't play fair, and whether you lose or miss out, it's your own discomfort.
2. Going long on contracts is my first choice.
I ultimately chose this approach. Many people cringe at the word 'contract', thinking it's gambling, but it's not that exaggerated. Opening with 1x margin isn't much different from spot trading in the short term. It's just slightly higher in holding costs by a few points. But why choose contracts? Because they are more flexible. The private placement will take 2-3 days to issue tokens, and our small group is trading with low leverage contracts, and some have already made profits by closing at A7. Getting early returns to avoid unexpected situations is my preferred way to participate.
The scenario I speculate
The storyline I personally lean towards is this: the project team will first pump the price before launching, creating pressure for some hedging players. After the spot listing, they will pump it to a certain height, accumulating enough short positions before starting to sell off the spot. They will exit liquidity through both spot and contracts. After all, the buying power in the secondary altcoin market is limited, and without a price pump, where will the buy orders come from? Of course, this is just my guess, so take it with a grain of salt.
