Talking about my views on altcoin season after Bitcoin reaches 110,000
In this cycle, many people have discussed the topic of altcoin season, some say it will come again, while others say it will never happen again. Here’s my conclusion: the outbreak of altcoin season will come again, for the following reasons:
1. Against human nature: The advantage of retail investors is their ability to summarize, but their disadvantage is also their ability to summarize. During the bull market of 2017, Bitcoin and altcoins soared together, and then came the bear market of 2018, where altcoins collectively went to zero. Although Bitcoin dropped significantly, it was clearly much milder compared to altcoins. So everyone learned their lesson and heavily bought into BTC during the subsequent bear market. And then in the bull market of 2021, altcoins exploded. As long as one held on till the end, the gains were several times or even dozens of times. Compared to altcoins, Bitcoin's gains were negligible, and many Bitcoin holders missed out on this great bull market. After this wave, everyone started summarizing again, planning to buy altcoins early in the next cycle and to become diamond hands. And now we are in this cycle, where BTC is in a bull market while altcoins are in a bear market, and this phenomenon continues to this day, showing a coexistence of bull and bear markets. By the next cycle, retail investors will summarize again, and they will stockpile a large amount of BTC. Once the altcoin market is empty, it will be easy to pump and flourish;
2. Project manipulation: Always remember one thing, capitalists do not do charity; the money they invest will eventually be returned with interest. After this wave in 2024 and 2025, altcoins collectively went to zero, and retail investors have mostly sold out. Now, the altcoin projects in the market have had their chips mostly reclaimed by the project parties, so the project parties now have enough cheap chips in hand, making it easy to manipulate the market. With just tens of thousands of dollars, they can create a market value of tens of millions. Once they start collectively pumping, market enthusiasm will be immediately ignited, and everyone will mindlessly chase the price up; chasing highs and cutting losses is a common trait of retail investors.
3. True prosperity: Those who have experienced bull and bear cycles know that although Bitcoin has multiplied several times in this wave of 2024, the market has not been ignited from start to finish. A bull market is often accompanied by nationwide craziness, discussions, and a state where even pigs can make money. The surge of one coin does not bring prosperity to the entire market. During Bitcoin's exceptional performance, the voices of discontent among retail investors echoed throughout the market. The market has never been ignited. Without ignition, new retail investors won't enter the market, and without new retail investors, there won’t be a violent bull market. Therefore, this wave is essentially a game of existing stock with very little incremental increase. When new retail investors enter the market en masse, that will be the time for the altcoin season to arrive, and currently, the user base in crypto, on a global scale, is still a very small part.
4. To summarize, the violent bull market of altcoin season will come again, and it will be very crazy, or rather, the altcoin bull market will continue to exist in the future. As long as the crypto industry continues to exist, altcoin bulls will persist. If the altcoin bull does not come in the second half of this year, it will definitely come in the next cycle.
