One, the essence of stablecoins: US dollar debt certificates, not sovereign currency.
Collateral issuance mechanism: For each USDT issued, $1 or equivalent government bonds must be deposited in the bank (e.g., 82% cash-type assets + 18% Bitcoin/Gold), essentially a 'custodial certificate,' while the Federal Reserve can print money without collateral, relying on national credit backing.
Value dependence: The payment capability of USDT relies on merchants' recognition of the US dollar; if merchants refuse to accept it, it cannot circulate; fiat currency cannot be refused due to legal compulsion (e.g., taxes, wage payments).
Two, core profit: zero-cost fund arbitrage.
Interest differential model:
User purchases 100 USDT = zero-interest loan of 100 dollars to Tether.
Tether allocates funds to US government bonds (annualized 4.5%) or high-yield assets (non-compliant assets contribute 40% of profit).
Annual profit: Circle earns $1.4 billion annually under a scale of 32 billion USDC; Tether's profit exceeds $13 billion in 2024 under a scale of 100 billion USDT.
Comparison with banks: Banks need to pay deposit interest (US dollar time deposit rate of 3-5%), while stablecoin issuers have no such cost.
Three, the fatal flaw of algorithmic stablecoins: Detached from sovereign backing.
Mechanism risk: Relies on smart contracts to adjust supply and demand (e.g., issuance during UST price increase, destruction during price drop), but lacks real asset support; once confidence collapses, it spirals into death (e.g., UST crash).
Regulatory crackdown: Challenges the sovereign status of fiat currency, viewed as 'counterfeit,' becoming a key regulatory target (e.g., SEC includes tokenized securities in regulation).
Four, the ceiling of stablecoins: Unable to obtain currency sovereignty.
No compulsion: Cannot be used for tax payments, wage distribution, and cannot replicate the compulsory circulation scenarios of fiat currency.
No policy autonomy: Only passively follows US dollar interest rates (e.g., Federal Reserve rate hike → USDT collateral government bond yield increases; rate cut → forced issuance), without independent monetary policy capability.
Five, the future belongs to national digital currencies (CBDCs).
Advantages of central bank digital currencies:
China's digital yuan / US CBDC: Directly linked to national credit, no collateral assets required.
Precise regulation: Supports sovereign functions such as targeted subsidies and tax deductions.
Private stablecoin positioning: Only serves as a transitional tool between 'fiat currency and the crypto world,' profitable but lacking sovereign attributes.
Key data corroboration
Comparison of stablecoins (USDT/USDC) with traditional bank sovereign currency (USD) profit models: Interest differential (zero-cost funds + investment returns), lending and borrowing interest differential (interest-bearing liabilities), seigniorage (printing cost ≈ 0), 2024 profits: Tether exceeds $13 billion, JPMorgan net profit $49.7 billion, Federal Reserve system annual profit exceeds $100 billion; collateral requirements: 100% reserve assets vs. fractional reserve system without collateral.
💎 Core conclusion: Stablecoins are 'dollar ecosystem arbitrageurs,' earning the time value of zero-cost funds rather than currency sovereignty dividends. Their high returns stem from regulatory arbitrage and market expansion period dividends, but they are always constrained by the sovereign framework, and the ultimate outcome may pave the way for national CBDCs.
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