The current momentum in the market is so strong that you can almost smell the 'money' through the screen. U.S. stocks are flying alongside the crypto circle; the Nasdaq and S&P are hitting new highs, Tesla is surging thanks to AI, and Bitcoin is making waves, breaking through the $118,000 ceiling, with ETH also crossing the $3,000 mark. The entire circle is bustling, as if 'get-rich-quick' particles are floating in the air.
The most direct signal light—the market sentiment—is clearly showing a 'greed' yellow light.
The fear and greed index, this old friend, was restrained at 58 (neutral) yesterday, but today it couldn't hold back and shot up to 71! This is not just a fluctuation of numbers; it clearly tells us that the market's optimistic sentiment has been ignited, investors are getting bolder, risk appetite is rising rapidly, and we can even smell the early signs of 'madness' starting to spread.
The floating profits in everyone's accounts (reportedly 90.85% of addresses are making money?) have given everyone plenty of confidence; trading volume has surged, buying pressure is overwhelming, and it all looks prosperous.
However, experienced traders understand that when the greed index peaks, it often rings alarm bells.
The market will not always rise unidirectionally, especially when emotions are overheated. Bitcoin aims for the $120,000 mark, and this psychological and technical dual resistance may not be so easily surpassed. Huge profit-taking positions are watching closely, ready to turn into selling pressure at any moment. Just like a taut bowstring, the tighter it is pulled, the more forceful the rebound may be.
At this time, blindly chasing higher prices, especially with high-leverage contracts, drastically increases the risk factor, and a small misstep can turn you into 'fuel'.
So, how should we proceed next? It all depends on the great policy drama!
As we enter July, the market's 'heartbeat' is destined to accelerate, and volatility will significantly amplify. The core driving force behind the market will shift from purely technical or capital factors to a fierce game around the two global core issues: tariffs and monetary policy.
August focus: How will tariffs be implemented?
The uncertainty of trade policies is another major source of disturbance. August is a crucial window for clarifying tariff policies. How will the specific terms be formulated? What is the scope of impact? This directly affects global supply chains and economic growth expectations, significantly influencing risk appetite. The market needs to see a clear path; otherwise, anxiety may return.
September's big suspense: Will the interest rate cut happen?
If July is about observing 'hints', then September is about anticipating 'solid evidence'. Will the Federal Reserve initiate interest rate cuts as some market expectations suggest? What will be the magnitude and pace of the cuts? This will be the 'anchor' determining the price trends of assets for the second half of the year and even next year. Whether the expectations for rate cuts can materialize is the core support for the market to stabilize at high levels or even reach new highs.
In the face of such a 'troublesome autumn', strategies require more wisdom and composure.
In the context of high emotion but immense potential policy fluctuations, the twelve-character motto 'small positions, focus on spot, high selling and low buying' becomes exceptionally 'appealing'.
Why small positions?
Controlling risk is the key. During the policy game period, black swans and gray rhinos may appear; keeping enough ammunition allows you to seize opportunities amid volatility and respond calmly when risks arise.
Why is spot trading king?
Contract leverage in extreme fluctuations is a double-edged sword, easily resulting in margin calls due to bidirectional 'spikes'. Holding spot assets, at least you won't be forcibly exited due to short-term intense fluctuations; a steadier mindset allows you to hold on and ultimately succeed.
How to play high selling and low buying?
Make good use of the fluctuations brought by market sentiment and policy expectations. When the greed index is high and close to key resistance levels, appropriately take profits and reduce positions; when policy disturbances lead to panic and irrational price corrections, buy back in batches. Don't pursue buying at the lowest and selling at the highest; instead, make waves in relatively safe areas, accumulating small victories for greater success. This is much more reliable than risking it all in the contract market.
Instead of drifting with the emotional tide or risking your life in high-risk contracts, it's better to sit steadily at the spot trading platform, using small positions to flexibly find the rhythm of 'high selling and low buying' amid policy expectations and emotional fluctuations.
Stay clear-headed and respect the market to ensure that in the upcoming critical quarters, you don't miss potential opportunities and can also hold onto hard-earned gains. Treasure every step; the next moves need to be weighed more cautiously.
Create a high-quality circle
Focus on spot trading
Continue to pay attention#美国加征关税 #ETH突破3000 #BTC再创新高
$BTC$ETH
