#套利交易策略 , The Underlying Logic Behind Bitcoin's Surge: The Transformation from 'Speculative Asset' to 'Macro Asset'

1. The 'Asymmetrical Relationship' Between Federal Reserve Policy and the Crypto Market

Traditional analytical frameworks believe that interest rate hikes are negative for Bitcoin, while rate cuts are positive. However, the reality in 2025 is: Bitcoin's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy is decreasing, while its response to 'real interest rates' and 'global liquidity' is more direct.

For example, after the minutes were released early this morning, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond only rose slightly by 2 basis points to 4.52%, while Bitcoin surged by 3%—this indicates that the market is more concerned with the 'reduction of policy uncertainty' itself, rather than the direction of interest rates.

In comparison to December 2024: At that time, the Federal Reserve hinted at slowing the pace of interest rate cuts, but Bitcoin initiated a bull market a month early due to expectations of 'global M2 growth bottoming out and rebounding.'

2. 'Reallocation of Funds' Amid the Trade War

Trump's tariff policy is reshaping the flow of global capital:

Capital flight from emerging markets: Stock markets in countries like Brazil and Mexico collectively fell more than 2% overnight, while Bitcoin's trading volume in Latin America surged by 40%—local investors are using cryptocurrencies to hedge against the depreciation risk of their local currencies.

Institutional fund 'risk aversion upgrade': BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) saw a net inflow of $120 million yesterday, while gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $380 million. This confirms our judgment: under 'stagflation' expectations, Bitcoin is replacing gold as the preferred inflation-hedging asset for institutions.