BRAZILIAN RIGHT IN CHECK
The support of the Brazilian right for Trump may come at a high electoral cost. Trump's interference in Brazil, seen as a political aggression, is likely to harm his allies.
*Key Points:*
* Trump's attack on Brazil: an unnegotiable political aggression.
* Trade damages: considerable, but negotiable. Political impact: much more serious.
* Trump's interference: weakened his allies in other countries.
* Bolsonaro clan's alignment with Trump: may result in significant electoral losses.
* Lack of diplomatic clarity: worsened the situation.
We analyze the negative consequences of the Brazilian right's alignment with Donald Trump, especially after the former American president's attacks on Brazil. We argue that while trade damages can be negotiated, the political impact will be devastating for Trump's supporters in Brazil, particularly for the Bolsonaro clan. Trump's strategy of political interference in other countries, such as Canada, Australia, and Mexico, has resulted in the weakening of his local allies, and Brazil should not be an exception.
The Brazilian government's unwillingness to establish direct communication channels with the White House during the Trump administration is also pointed out as a factor that worsened the situation. Despite the temptation to take a side in the geopolitical confrontation, perhaps a smarter strategy would be to acknowledge Trump's eventual exit from power and the maintenance of deep ties between Brazil and the United States in the long term. However, the perception of this short-term horizon seems unlikely.
In summary, we foresee serious electoral consequences for the pro-Trump Brazilian right, resulting from the misguided political strategy and the diplomatic indifference of the Brazilian government. The dependence on an unpredictable ally like Trump and the consequent lack of a self-strategy are the main factors that will contribute to these losses.
