On a macro level, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting released key signals. Participants emphasized the importance of stability in long-term inflation expectations, but there are signs of warming in short-term inflation expectations. If this trend continues, it could transmit to long-term expectations, thereby affecting price and wage setting. Regarding the impact of tariffs, most participants believe they could have a more lasting effect on inflation, potentially affecting inflation expectations; only a few viewpoints suggest that tariffs will only trigger a one-time price increase without impacting long-term expectations. Additionally, the minutes show that most committee members have a neutral to cautious stance, believing there is a possibility of one or more rate cuts in 2025 – both declining inflation and economic downturns could open the door to rate cuts, with a nearly equal proportion of hawkish and dovish stances. If inflation is controllable, the probability of a rate cut in September is relatively high.
In the U.S., Bitwise (2025 Q2 Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Report) shows that as of June 30, 125 publicly traded companies globally held a cumulative total of 847,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4.03% of the total supply, with a total market value of approximately $91 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.93%. In this quarter, corporate new purchases reached 159,000 Bitcoins, setting a new record for the highest quarterly purchases, and 46 new holding companies were added. Among the major holding companies, Strategy ranks first with 597,000 Bitcoins, followed by MARA Holdings (49,940 Bitcoins) and the newly added Twenty One (37,230 Bitcoins). Additionally, GameStop completed its first Bitcoin purchase, and Trump Media is preparing $2.5 billion in funding to increase its Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, BTCS Inc. (NASDAQ: BTCS), which focuses on blockchain technology, has announced an increase in its financing target to $225 million to accelerate its layout in Ethereum.
In terms of policy, recently Trump has released tariff policies for some small countries, but the market generally believes this has limited impact on the overall landscape. Since the announcement of the TACO policy, market sentiment has clearly improved. However, before the formal implementation of tariffs on August 1, the progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Long Brother, as well as the results of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting, remain key variables affecting the market.
The price of Bitcoin broke through the previous high on May 22, reaching a new all-time high of nearly $112,000, with an intraday increase of nearly 3%. From the perspective of market supply and demand, the current price increase is more due to the supply-demand mismatch caused by investors' reluctance to sell, rather than a significant increase in purchasing power or capital. This characteristic is observed in both the spot and ETF markets.
On-chain data shows that yesterday's market turnover rate further declined compared to the previous day, and activity continues to decrease. Specifically, in terms of support levels, there are 2.268 million Bitcoins in the range of $104,000 to $108,500, which forms the first support level; while there are 1.913 million Bitcoins in the range of $93,000 to $98,000, forming the second support level.
Overall, Bitcoin is showing a short-term upward trend with fluctuations. If new highs are set again, it is necessary to be wary of the risk of false breakouts and prevent a pullback after the rise. Currently, its trend does not have the conditions to initiate a new round of upward momentum.