#美联储6月会议纪要 Recently, the Federal Reserve just released the minutes of the June meeting, which revealed a lot of significant insider information.#BTC重返11万

In simple terms, officials have slightly different opinions on the future direction of interest rates, especially regarding the impact of tariffs and inflation, as well as the pace of interest rate cuts, which has led to significant differences.

Are tariffs really an 'inflation bomb'? 💣

At this meeting, many officials felt that tariffs would lead to a more persistent rise in prices, not just a one-time increase. Although some officials believe that tariffs only raise prices 'once' and won't affect long-term inflation expectations, most feel that tariffs will 'cause trouble' and prolong inflation pressure.

However, everyone also acknowledges that this matter is complex because the transmission paths of tariffs are different, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future direction of trade negotiations. In other words, how much and for how long tariffs will affect inflation still depends on future performance.

To cut or not to cut? The differences among officials are growing 🤔

Regarding the interest rate cuts, there is no unified answer among everyone. Most officials expect to start cutting rates later this year, but many believe that since inflation has not yet reached the 2% target, it is too early for rate cuts.

Some officials believe that if the labor market worsens or the inflation pressure from tariffs is only temporary, then a rate cut might be the appropriate choice. In other words, as long as there are signs of economic weakness, they are willing to ease up.

However, many officials feel that the U.S. economy is still quite stable and that inflation has not fully improved, so it may be too early for rate cuts.

Interest rates remain stable, but Trump is getting anxious 😅

At the meeting, everyone unanimously decided to keep the interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, unchanged for four consecutive times. President Trump is somewhat dissatisfied with this stance, calling for the Federal Reserve to cut rates faster to lower borrowing costs.

However, there are actually two factions within the Federal Reserve:

  • Some are optimistic about at least two rate cuts before the end of this year.

  • Some believe that there will be no rate cuts this year, or at most one.

How is the economy and inflation? What does the Federal Reserve think? 🔍

Federal Reserve officials believe that while economic growth is slowing down a bit, it is still relatively stable overall. Trump's attitude in the trade war has softened, leading them to feel that the risks are not as great.

However, they also remind that the risks of inflation pressure and a weak labor market still exist, especially the concern that inflation might rise more than the economic slowdown.

More importantly, they feel that the current interest rates may not be 'high enough to suppress the economy,' so even if they start cutting rates, it may be small and limited adjustments.

When will the next rate cut happen? What does the market think? ⏳

A few officials in the Federal Reserve (such as Waller and Bowman) recently stated that given the slight easing of inflation data, they may consider a rate cut at the July meeting.

However, most people still feel it is necessary to 'be patient' for the data, especially the CPI data for June announced on July 15, which is very critical. Powell also did not explicitly support a rate cut in July in his recent speech, and the market generally feels that the probability of a rate cut in September is higher.

Investors currently generally expect that there may be a rate cut in both September and December.

To summarize👇

  • The inflation pressure from tariffs remains a headache for the Federal Reserve.

  • There are significant differences in opinions regarding interest rate cuts. Most officials support starting cuts later this year, but the pace and intensity still have uncertainties.

  • The overall economy is stable, and interest rates are not expected to change significantly in the short term.

  • The CPI data on July 15 is a key observation point moving forward.

  • Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut rates faster, but the Federal Reserve prefers to seek progress while maintaining stability.

So, friends in the crypto circle, tariffs, inflation, and interest rates are all influencing the market. The next actions of the Federal Reserve are crucial. Keep a close eye on the inflation data in mid-July. Whether you are in it for the long or short term, it's always wise to prepare in advance! 📈💡

✍️ DYOR, manage your risk well, and may everyone sail smoothly in the crypto circle! 🌊

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