In this recent wave of market activity, ETH's performance has indeed been impressive. #ETH In less than three weeks, it has risen nearly 30%, directly outperforming BTC's 10% during the same period. The ETH/BTC trading pair has also seen a 20% rebound, with some institutions even swapping BTC for ETH, showing immense confidence. #BTC再创新高

It seems like a bull market is starting, with ETH kicking off the third quarter beautifully, continuing the strong momentum from Q2, with an overall increase of 1.2 times that of BTC. But then again, despite the gains, why hasn't ETH reached a new historical high yet? 🤔 #趋势交易策略

💥 A strong rise does not equal a new high? ETH is still lacking a final push.

Although ETH is surging, let's take a look at reality:

🧠 Structural benefits are accumulating, but the market hasn't 'bought in' yet.

From on-chain data and institutional behavior, ETH's fundamentals are becoming increasingly stable:

  • The five major publicly held institutions collectively hold 240,000 ETH;

  • Trump's crypto portfolio consists of 95% ETH;

  • BlackRock is also not holding back, directly capturing 42% of the ETH ETF market share, totaling $4.45 billion.

No matter how you look at it, this seems like a typical signal of 'supply-side tightening + major whale positioning', logically the price should follow suit. But ETH's price trend has been unresponsive; is it just building momentum before takeoff, or yet another short-term emotional hype?

📈 ETH is performing well, but can it break free from BTC's 'gravitational field'?

ETH has just broken through the key resistance zone of $2815 and is now challenging the $3000 mark. From a technical perspective, it looks quite promising. If this structure holds, there is more to look forward to.

However, the key question is: Can ETH 'decouple' from BTC?

As it stands, it's still very difficult. When BTC drops, ETH follows suit. For instance, when BTC corrected from its high in May, ETH's drop was directly twice that—down 24%. Even with a strong underlying basis and a rich application ecosystem, ETH still hasn't achieved a truly 'independent market'.

🌀 Identity anxiety: Is ETH really a 'functional platform' or a 'value growth asset'?

There are voices pointing out that the current issue with ETH is: the positioning is not clear enough.

Bitcoin has always been positioned as 'digital gold' and 'decentralized currency', while ETH has been oscillating between roles of practicality, public chain platform, and asset appreciation. Although there have been several protocol upgrades in the past few months, on-chain demand and activity have not followed through on a large scale.

If ETH wants to challenge historical highs, it must escape the dependency on the BTC cycle and truly achieve value independence. Otherwise, no matter how many favorable conditions are in place, it might only be a fleeting moment.

✅ Conclusion: ETH is bullish without a doubt, but the 'turnaround' battle is not over yet!

📌 In summary: ETH is gaining strength, but it's not time to celebrate yet.
Institutions are buying, technical indicators are improving, and market confidence is recovering, but for ETH to truly break through its historical highs, it still needs to solve the core issue of 'following the drop but not the rise'.

The next step is to see if it can hold the $3,000 mark; once it stabilizes, the next target might be to challenge 4000+, and that would be the real 'Ethereum moment'!

✍️ DYOR, manage risk well, and may everyone set sail in the crypto world! 🌊

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