$BTC Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Summary
😂省流：开了和没开一样
Yesterday (July 9, 2025), the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June monetary policy meeting were released, showing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has certain differences regarding the economic situation, monetary policy, and future interest rate paths. The main content summary is as follows:
1. Economic Fundamentals:
• The U.S. economy shows resilience, with GDP growth expected to be "steady with an upward trend" in the second quarter.
• The job market remains robust, with the unemployment rate maintaining around 4.2%, but the activity level of corporate hiring and layoffs has slowed, and some companies have paused expansion or large investments due to policy uncertainties.
2. Inflation and Tariff Impacts:
• Inflation pressures have eased in recent months but remain above the 2% target.
• Committee members expressed concerns that tariffs could push inflation higher; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may be necessary to maintain a stricter monetary policy.
3. Divergence in Interest Rate Path:
• Committee members have differing opinions on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts:
• A minority of members support an immediate rate cut in July (such as Fed Governors Waller and Bowman).
• The majority of members expect 1-2 rate cuts before the end of 2025.
• Some members advocate for keeping rates unchanged throughout the year.
• Policy decisions will still be data-driven, and no unified timetable for rate cuts has been established.
4. Monetary Policy Outlook:
• The Federal Reserve continues to emphasize data dependency, focusing on key indicators such as PCE, CPI, and non-farm employment to assess future rate cut space.
• Market expectations for a rate cut in July are relatively low, with a higher probability of cuts before the end of the year, but specific steps remain uncertain.
In summary, the June meeting minutes reflect the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards the pace of rate cuts amid a backdrop of a robust economy and easing inflation pressures, though uncertainties remain. Committee members exhibit divergence between hawkish and dovish policy paths, and future decisions will highly depend on economic data performance.