BTC Hits Historical New High, Can the Uptrend Continue?
Bitcoin broke its previous high at the end of the U.S. stock market on July 9, reaching a historic high of nearly $112,000 per coin, with an intraday increase of nearly 3%. This breakthrough was driven by multiple factors, and there is a certain possibility for future upward momentum:
1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Provide Support
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed internal disagreements, but most participants believe that a rate cut may be appropriate this year, enhancing the market's expectations for future liquidity easing, which is favorable for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
1. Mainstream Camp: Most believe a rate cut might occur this year but exclude an immediate cut in July, waiting for clearer inflation and economic outlooks.
2. Hawkish Camp: A minority believes there should be no rate cuts this year, as inflation data still exceeds the 2% target.
3. Dovish Camp: A minority would consider a rate cut at the next meeting if data meets expectations.
2. Long-term Holders Firmly Maintain Positions
1. Long-term holders own 74% of the total Bitcoin supply, demonstrating their firm belief in the market and providing support.
2. Since July 2024, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has steadily decreased, with investors tending towards long-term holding, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats, there may be further space for a bull market.
3. Technical Indicators Show Upward Potential
1. Bitcoin is in a clear upward channel, highly aligned with the Fibonacci channel since 2013, with the “bull flag” top converting into a support level, which is a strong bullish signal, as the price continues to stay above the 50-day simple moving average.
2. Analysts predict that the “bull flag” breakout technically points to a target price of $168,500; if it follows the fractal pattern with M2 money supply, a parabolic rise may occur after the consolidation period; the current cycle is similar to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, which may have huge upward potential; if it follows the 2020 model, the price may peak in October.
In summary, macroeconomic benefits, institutional adoption, and listed companies accumulating coins are resonating to drive Bitcoin to new highs, with long-term holders maintaining a firm stance. From the perspective of market momentum, there may be stronger upward trends in the second half of the year.
