ASSET: Usual (USUAL)
DATE OF ANALYSIS: July 9, 2025
THE PROBLEM: While the Real World Asset (RWA) narrative is gaining significant traction and institutional interest, individual RWA projects like Usual need to demonstrate robust technical fundamentals, clear tokenomics, and sustained development to convert narrative hype into tangible value and overcome inherent market volatility and speculative tendencies.
THE SOLUTION: Usual, as a decentralized fiat stablecoin issuer with a governance token ($USUAL) backed by real cash flows, positioned within the burgeoning RWA sector, offers a strategic opportunity if it can effectively capitalize on its foundational strengths and the growing RWA market.
EVIDENCE & SYNTHESIS (PRINCIPLE OF CONFLUENCE):
* (Domain 1: Fundamental & Catalyst News):
* Usual is identified as a decentralized Fiat Stablecoin issuer built on Ethereum, launched in 2024, with USD0 as its product.
* USD0 is a stablecoin fully backed by short-term, liquid, and risk-free assets, designed to be composable, permissionless, and transparent within the DeFi ecosystem.
* $USUAL is the governance token, rewarding the growth, adoption, and usage of USD0, and acting as ownership on the protocol's revenue. This positions USUAL within the high-growth Real World Assets (RWA) narrative.
* The RWA sector is a "central narrative in the 2024-2025 crypto season" with its market cap hitting $35.9 billion and experts believing it will cross $50 billion by year-end and reach $10 trillion by 2030.
* Regulatory clarity and institutional integration are advancing, with surging investor interest in tokenized assets, including RWA products. The World Economic Forum notes strong momentum towards regulatory clarity and increasing technological maturity for asset tokenization.
* However, no specific recent news or developments regarding "Usual Network" from Q2 2025 were found that detail project-specific updates, partnerships, or significant milestones beyond its general description.
* (Domain 2: Technical Analysis Reports):
* One TradingView idea from June 27 suggests USUAL/USDT could see a "Worst Case Scenario +950%" and potentially "4,000%+" growth in the coming months, highlighting its availability on "many top exchanges."
* This analysis notes the price recently went "below 100%" and that volume has dropped significantly, with "candles almost invisible," which is seen as an indicator that "change is approaching."
* It points to a potential buy opportunity when a bearish move goes beyond the low of the previous move.
* Binance is listed as a significant exchange for USUAL, with a 24-hour volume of $13.08M as of July 9, 2025. The overall crypto market in Q2 2025 has been volatile but ended with stocks near all-time highs, with strong earnings from AI-related companies.
* The broader Binance market shows that futures volumes tend to dominate spot volumes, indicating an increasingly speculative market.
* (Domain 3: On-Chain & Sentiment Data Reports):
* Usual has a total supply of 4,000,000,000.00 USUAL tokens, with 80.55% unlocked and 19.45% still locked.
* Key allocations include Community Incentives (64.5%), Initial Airdrop (8.5%), DAO and Ecosystem (7.5%), and Binance Launchpool (7.5%).
* Team, Investors & Advisors, and DAO and Ecosystem allocations have a 1-year cliff followed by 3 years of linear vesting, suggesting a long-term commitment to the project.
* The live Usual price today is $0.070904 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $17,257,256 USD. Its rank is #410 by CoinMarketCap.
* Metrics like "Fully diluted market cap -28.3%" and "Token trading volume (30d) $651.5 M -27.6%" indicate a recent decline in these metrics. However, the project's fees (30d) are $811.2K, and it's recognized as "one of the fastest-growing stablecoin issuers on Ethereum."
RISK ASSESSMENT:
* Market Speculation: The overall crypto market, particularly on platforms like Binance, shows a strong speculative component, with futures dominating spot volumes, indicating potential for high volatility.
* Project-Specific Development Visibility: While the RWA narrative is strong, the lack of recent, specific news or Q2 2025 updates directly from Usual Network could indicate a slower development cycle or less aggressive marketing, which might temper investor enthusiasm.
* Token Unlock Schedule: While vesting schedules for Team and Investors aim for long-term alignment, significant future unlocks could lead to selling pressure if not absorbed by market demand.
* General Market Downturns: Despite the bullish outlook from some analysts, a broader market downturn could negatively impact even strong narrative-driven assets.
FINAL ASSESSMENT:
* Overall Confidence Score: Medium
* Analyst Summary: USUAL presents a compelling narrative-driven opportunity rooted in the high-growth RWA sector and its core function as a stablecoin issuer with a revenue-backed governance token. While recent price action suggests a potential inflection point and long-term vesting indicates project commitment, the absence of recent, detailed project updates from Q2 2025 necessitates a medium confidence score.
Analysis complete. A [Medium] Confidence thesis has been formulated on USUAL.
