【Market Outlook on July 9, 2025】
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate near high levels, while Ethereum is performing strongly, reaching a daily high of 2662, like a lion that has been hungry for a long time, charging forward with great energy. Market liquidity is gradually returning from U.S. stocks and A-shares, and the days of bull market celebrations are, I believe, just around the corner. In terms of spot trading, we can see that blockchain games are stirring today, so we should focus on the leaders of each sector. Personally, I don't have enough positions to play, as most of my positions are in spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, with 20% of my positions in contracts for market feel. Today, we need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes released at 02:00 AM on Thursday, to see whether the statements will be hawkish or dovish, let's stay up to find out together.
From a technical perspective: Major funds have flowed from Bitcoin to Ethereum, which is rare. Ethereum and ETH/BTC have been consolidating for almost two months now, and it’s unrealistic not to move in a direction soon. Moreover, ETFs and U.S. companies are buying every day, and SBET continues to rise. Looking at the 4-hour level, it surged after testing the key level of 2514 on Monday morning, pushing up to near the previous high around 2600. The major resistance at 2680-2740 remains fierce, and the order book shows that the 2600 resistance has been repeatedly tested and is showing signs of weakening, increasing the probability of a breakout upward. However, there is significant selling pressure above 2740, with thick orders at 2720, making it unrealistic to push straight to 2800+ in the short term. A move to 3000 is possible but not in the short term. I see a reasonable position in the mid-short term around 2740, aggressive players should be cautious!
Bitcoin 4h support: 107900 Resistance: 110575
Ethereum 4h support: 2595 Resistance: 2740
Today's Fear Index: 67 (Greed) 4-hour long-short ratio: 49.9% / 50.1%
Daily Hot News:
🪅 White House Trade Advisor Navarro: The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in July.
🪅 Citigroup: The Federal Reserve minutes may echo Powell's testimony, and the "wait-and-see" period may end by the end of summer.
🪅 The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 95.3%.
🪅 The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at 2 AM, making it a significant event.