Since breaching the $100,000 mark on May 8, the Bitcoin price has maintained a daily close above this psychological price level. Although the BTC price fell to $98,300 on June 22, this crypto asset is still close to breaking the new high of $111,800.

Although a drop to $100,000 represents only a 9% pullback, some indicators suggest that the range between $100,000 and $110,000 may become the new bottom before BTC experiences another parabolic rebound in the second half of 2025.

According to CryptoQuant data, market activity is moving towards a confident long-term recovery direction, with on-chain data showing outflows exceeding inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, reaching the highest level since the end of the 2022 bear market, which typically indicates strong demand.

This ratio measures the balance of Bitcoin inflows and outflows from exchanges and can serve as a market sentiment indicator. A value below 1 indicates that investors are withdrawing assets from exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. Conversely, historically, values above 1.05 are usually associated with increased selling pressure and local market tops.

Notably, the recent decline mirrors the levels seen in December 2022, when Bitcoin reached a macro bottom near $15,500. This turning point triggered months of sustained rebounds, reinforcing the theory that low ratios typically indicate price reversals.

The dominance of current capital outflows and the increasing participation of long-term investors strongly suggest that a structural bottom is forming. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical demand-driven turning point, potentially marking the start of the next bull market.

Bitcoin has absorbed the selling pressure from short-term traders.

Despite the continuous selling by Binance derivatives contract sellers over the past 45 days, the Bitcoin price remains stable in the range of $100,000 to $110,000. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) data is still negative, indicating selling pressure from traders in the short term. However, the price has failed to fall further, indicating that this capital is being absorbed, which means funds are accumulating.

This structural resilience may be reinforced by on-chain activity, which indicates institutional migration.

Such actions are typically not impulsive but often involve strategic positioning, indicating that large entities may intervene when prices remain stable under significant short-term pressure.

The sustained selling, moderate pullbacks, and large-scale accumulation reinforce the assertion that Bitcoin is bottoming out near $100,000. Although short-term volatility may continue, support from investors (likely institutional investors) may make a significant pullback below this level increasingly unlikely.

Today's fear index is 66, indicating a state of greed.

The public purchases of Bitcoin by U.S. spot ETFs, MicroStrategy, and other institutions, while generally favorable for Bitcoin price increases, only represent the tip of the iceberg in total demand, merely positive news but not sufficient to drive prices to new all-time highs. If the overall demand from large holders and other retail investors is declining simultaneously, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to break new highs based solely on spot market purchasing power in the short term.

Currently, tariffs have been confirmed to be postponed until August 1, and the start of a new high will follow once the negative news lands.