Observing recent market dynamics, data from July 8 shows that the transfer volume of Bitcoin to OTC platforms is gradually declining. Typically, large institutions and whales conduct large spot trades through OTC channels to avoid impacting secondary market prices, so this weakening data directly reflects the shrinking demand for large off-market transactions.
Turning our attention to the on-market situation, although the real buying details of centralized platforms (CEX) are difficult to obtain directly, demand changes can be indirectly assessed through two dimensions:
Firstly, the trend evolution of the platform's Bitcoin spot trading volume. Trading volume is an intuitive reflection of market participants' emotions. Generally speaking, when prices rise, market sentiment is high, and trading volume should increase accordingly, while bear markets are often accompanied by sluggish trading volume. Currently, although the price of Bitcoin remains around $110,000, just a step away from the previous high, its 7-day average trading volume has approached the low points of May 2024 and March 2025. From a long-term trend perspective, trading volume shows a clear downward trend, indicating that both on-market and off-market participants are experiencing a decrease in trading willingness.
(Figure 1)
This divergence between price and trading volume is highly similar to the market performance in April-May 2024 and February-March 2025 — all showing a gradual decline in momentum after breaking new highs, suggesting that the current market may have entered its later stages. Even if a rebound occurs and reaches previous highs during this period, it is challenging to reproduce a trend of equal intensity. Unless an extreme bearish event occurs, Bitcoin is likely to enter a long-term wide-ranging fluctuation; however, once trading volume begins to consistently increase, it could signal the start of the next trend, similar to the market performance from July to October 2024.
Secondly, the net outflow and inflow of large amounts of Bitcoin on the platform. Focusing on core liquidity platforms such as a certain platform and Coinbase, the movement of funds exceeding $10 million deserves special attention. The net outflow of large Bitcoin amounts from the platform usually arises from three scenarios: market makers (MM) transferring assets to complete deliveries with off-market buyers, big players cashing out off-market after price increases, and whales transferring assets to cold wallets after accumulation.
According to data from a certain platform, since the first breakthrough of $110,000 in May, the net outflow of Bitcoin exceeding $10 million has continued to shrink during the two assaults in June and July. Three possible reasons may lie behind this: a further weakening of off-market buyer demand, the end of profit-taking behaviors at high levels, and reduced asset accumulation activities by whales. This situation is similar to the market characteristics from December 2024 to February 2025; fortunately, there has not yet been a net influx (a potential selling pressure signal).
(Figure 2)
In contrast, when Bitcoin's price rebounded to $106,000 in June, Coinbase experienced a large net outflow exceeding the peak levels of May. This indicates that institutional players in the U.S. market are still maintaining a relatively active participation attitude and have not shifted from net outflow to net inflow as seen in January 2025; instead, large-scale asset outflows have occurred.
(Figure 3)
Overall, the current market presents three major characteristics: First, the participation in on-market spot trading continues to decline, and the shrinking liquidity may exacerbate price fluctuations; second, prices are operating at high levels but market enthusiasm is decreasing, indicating that the market is entering its later stages; third, the movement of large funds on leading platforms is diverging, with some showing weakened demand, while Coinbase indicates that the U.S. market still has vitality.
Considering factors such as the contraction of off-market demand, the current market does not yet have sufficient conditions to support Bitcoin in initiating a significant trend. However, a lack of upward momentum does not imply a significant downturn, especially since the positive sentiment in the U.S. market provides some support. From a macro perspective, factors such as geopolitical conflicts, tariff adjustments, inflation, and expectations of interest rate cuts are all within market expectations and have not triggered extreme panic, which aligns with the emotions reflected in current market data. In the short term, Bitcoin is more likely to display a wide-ranging fluctuation pattern; the initiation of a new trend still requires confirmation from key signals such as trading volume.
