$BNB

1. Pressure on U.S. Businesses

• A recent AP analysis estimates U.S. employers will absorb around $82.3 billion in costs due to tariffs, not foreign producers—likely passed to consumers via price hikes, layoffs, or margin cuts, particularly in retail and wholesale sectors .

• The Congressional Budget Office projects tariffs will lift inflation by 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026, modestly dent GDP, but reduce the federal deficit by an estimated $2.8 trillion over the next decade .

2. Macroeconomic & Market Reactions

• The U.S. dollar dropped 10.8% in H1 2025—the worst performance in over 50 years—amid investor worries about trade and policy instability .

• Despite trade pressures, U.S. inflation remained subdued in May 2025, with core CPI up just 0.1% MoM, as companies mitigated effects by using inventory buffers .

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell admitted tariffs are a factor delaying interest rate cuts, citing inflation pressures .

3. Sectoral and Household Effects

• The Penn & Wharton Budget Model estimates tariffs could reduce long‑run GDP by ~6% and wages by ~5%, costing a middle-income household around $22,000 over its lifetime .

• A Tax Foundation report calculates tariff hikes amounting to nearly $1,200 per household in 2025 .

• Retail example: A $30 cotton sweater could jump to ~$35.80 with current tariffs, and to ~$57.97 with full implementation of high-tier rates .

4. Trade Strategy & Legal Challenges

• The second Trump administration’s tariff policy raised the average U.S. import duty from ~2.5% in January to roughly 27% by April, later easing to around 15.8% by mid-June .

• Tariffs—including 50% on steel/aluminum and 25% on cars—were implemented under national emergency and trade laws. Courts have blocked some under IEEPA, with rulings going through appeal .

• A tariff tracker shows new reciprocal tariffs affecting dozens of delayed ahead of a July 9 deadline, with U.S. threatening even steeper duties on BRICS-aligned nations .