Bitcoin is holding steady above the 365-day SMA of the MVRV ratio — a benchmark considered a reliable anchor point in the cycle. The price has surpassed this level for the past 12 days and is currently being closely monitored as a continuation trend indicator.
With BTC still holding above $108,000, the current pattern reflects long-term confidence, as long as the MVRV > SMA365 condition continues to be maintained. However, that confidence needs to be backed by actual on-chain data. Price alone cannot sustain upward momentum.
Are investors taking profits or preparing for the next rally?
The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) index increased by 2.27%, with total net profits recorded at approximately $293 million. This reflects moderate profit-taking but is not strong enough to trigger a wave of selling.
In fact, this behavior often appears in the mid-cycle phase – where traders take partial profits while still maintaining confidence in the larger upward trend. The absence of large-scale sell-offs indicates that investors still expect BTC to continue rising.
Is the decline in network activity concerning for Bitcoin bulls?
This is the part that makes the chart difficult to predict.
According to data from Santiment, the number of BTC transactions has decreased to 85,900, while network growth has also dropped to 65,800 — both are near the lowest levels in the month.
These declines indicate a reduction in new participants and weak on-chain interactions. While this may be a warning signal, it also suggests that the short-term speculative group has been eliminated.
Therefore, the bulls may view this as a 'reset' phase rather than a breakdown. However, if network activity remains low for an extended period, bullish momentum may weaken.
Currently, the fact that prices remain stable despite these weakening signals indicates a disconnect between actual acceptance levels and market valuations.
The hype around Bitcoin
The social media dominance ratio of BTC has surged to 34.92%, the highest since early 2025. This upward momentum reflects growing interest from the market, often associated with speculative bullish sentiment.
However, in the past, such sudden spikes have often coincided with local peaks, especially when not supported by strong on-chain data. Therefore, the increased level of attention can be a double-edged sword. While it helps attract interest and new capital flows, it also increases market volatility.
Will the price structure and RSI support a breakout?
As of the time of writing, BTC remains above both the 9-day EMA and the 21-day EMA, while the RSI hovers around 55, indicating slight bullish momentum. This structure reflects a stable technical situation, as the EMA lines are acting as dynamic support. However, the momentum remains fragile.
To attract new capital flows, the price needs to surpass the $110,000 mark and the RSI must exceed 60. If these conditions are not met, the sideways trend may continue. Nevertheless, the EMA lines currently act as a solid launchpad, giving the bulls a chance to restart the rally if market sentiment improves and trading volume returns.
Can Bitcoin maintain its upward price trend?
Although on-chain activity is quite sluggish, the main structural signals of Bitcoin remain stable. Indicators such as the MVRV ratio, EMA lines, and slight increases in NRPL show that the bulls have not yet lost their grip.
However, the decline in transaction volume alongside the increase in social dominance suggests underlying fragility. BTC maintains an upward trend but is not invincible. If trading volume recovers and on-chain activity becomes vibrant again, the market may witness another upward movement.
Until then, patience and caution remain the preferred strategy.