Friends, the core of Bitcoin's market over the next month hinges on three key factors: **technical death lines, the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and institutional ammunition reserves**. The current price oscillates between $105,000 and $108,800, and this narrow range of fluctuation is like a compressed spring — holding steady at $108,800 will trigger a short squeeze, with the first target aiming for $113,000 or even $116,000; however, if the support at $105,000 is breached, it could lead to a long liquidation and a pullback to the $95,000 area. It is particularly noteworthy that market volatility has dropped to a near three-year low, and such low volatility often signals an impending shift, while historical data shows a greater than 75% probability of an increase in July, which provides us with a strong seasonal bias toward the short term.

The real game-changer is the Federal Reserve meeting on July 29. If a clear signal for a September rate cut is released, Bitcoin could potentially surge by 10% in a single day, breaking through $120,000; but if inflation data creates turbulence leading to a pause in hawkish policies, it might test the psychological barrier of $100,000 in the short term. Here, I remind everyone to closely watch two key dates: July 15 for U.S. CPI data, which may reshape market rate cut expectations, and July 24 for the European Central Bank's decision, which will also bring liquidity expectation correlations. Another potential risk is the U.S. Treasury's plan to replenish the TGA account, which is equivalent to pulling nearly $500 billion in liquidity from the market, potentially suppressing risk appetite temporarily.

On the funding side, a breakthrough momentum is brewing — if Bitcoin ETFs can restore net inflows at a weekly level of $1.6 billion this month (the average level of the previous three months), it will act as a catalyst for the market. On-chain data also conveys positive signals: the inventory of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to a five-year low, and chips priced below $100,000 are continuously being collected by whales into cold wallets. However, attention should be paid to the high leverage phenomenon in the derivatives market; currently, spot trading volume only accounts for 7% of derivatives, and this structure is prone to amplify volatility.

In terms of operation, a two-step approach is recommended: in early to mid-July, focus on observing the breakout direction of the $105,000-$108,800 range; if it can hold steady at the upper edge, it would be wise to increase positions decisively; as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, if the policy dovishness becomes clear, aim for a target of $120,000; if there is a hawkish surprise, it is advisable to initiate defensive strategies (such as using options for protection or shifting part of the position to stablecoins). Remember, the essence of this month's script is a technical game dominated by policy expectations, with $108,800 being the battleground that separates bulls from bears.