As we enter the second half of 2025, Bitcoin's volatility is low, monthly trading volume is declining, while cumulative net inflow for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is close to $50 billion.

According to data from The Block, Bitcoin's 'market' expected volatility (an indicator measuring the degree of price fluctuations over a period of 7 days to 6 months) has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023. At that time, Bitcoin's value was about one-third of its current price.

Besides low volatility, the monthly transaction volume of the Bitcoin network in June decreased by 15% compared to May, reaching its lowest level since October 2023. In recent weeks, trading activity has also bottomed out, with some extremely low-fee transactions still being selected by miners from the memory pool to be packed into blocks.

Despite low network activity, Wall Street's demand for Bitcoin continues to grow. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has consistently recorded new cumulative inflows. In the past two days, these funds attracted over $1 billion, bringing the total cumulative net inflow close to $50 billion. According to SoSoValue, the total value of Bitcoin held by these funds is currently about $137.6 billion, setting a new all-time high.

According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, publicly listed companies were also active buyers in June, purchasing about 65,000 Bitcoins (worth $7 billion at current prices). An analysis by Glassnode in June showed that while on-chain activity was virtually non-existent, the number of transactions from high-net-worth individuals and institutions increased significantly, indicating the growing role of institutions and 'whales' in the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin investors currently hold approximately $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This impressive figure reflects the paper profits accumulated by long-term investors as Bitcoin continues to approach historical highs.

Changes in the Bitcoin investor community

Data from Glassnode shows that the average unrealized profit per investor is about 125%, down from 180% when BTC prices peaked at $73,000 in March 2024.

However, despite the massive unrealized profits, investor behavior indicates they are not in a hurry to sell. The daily realized profits of Bitcoin remain relatively modest, averaging only $872 million.

This sharply contrasts with the previous bull market when BTC prices were $73,000 and $107,000, with realized profits soaring from $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion.

Additionally, the current market sentiment suggests that investors are waiting to adjust their positions after price increases. This trend indicates that long-term investors are holding firm, with their buying strength consistently exceeding selling pressure.

This highlights that HODLing remains the dominant market behavior among the investor community, with accumulation and mature flows far exceeding distribution pressure.

Bitcoin leverage reaches a new high for the year

According to data from CryptoQuant, the estimated leverage ratio for BTC across all exchanges has risen to 0.27, the highest level in the past 12 months.

While this indicates that traders have a high-risk appetite and are optimistic about the upside, it also suggests potential chain liquidation effects. When trading with high leverage or borrowed funds, severe price fluctuations can wipe out positions in the blink of an eye.

Despite the high leverage, according to financing rate data, the market is not too active or too hot, so there is no need for concern.

Data from CoinGlass shows that the financing rate for BTC hovers around 2%, far from the 'overheated' level of over 50% expected by the end of 2024.

In short, as long as other factors remain positive, the current leverage level is still considered healthy for BTC to continue rising.

Meanwhile, if liquidation hunting does occur, two key levels to watch in the short term are $103,000 and $111,000—regions with large liquidity that could become 'price magnets.'

In fact, if the market adjusts downwards in the short term and reaches this level, leveraged long positions valued at about $8 billion (around $103,000) may be at risk.

Other short-term macro adverse factors include Trump's tariff deadline on July 9 and the recently passed reconciliation bill.