The market is neither rising nor falling, with no clear winner between the bulls and bears. The account's floating profit remains flat like Sister Bei's, showing little volatility. This week, I increased my positions in Sol and Pepe, recovering 10% of the positions I sold earlier. Currently, my total position is 60%. The short-term key is whether Bitcoin can reach a new high and form a rising bull flag pattern.
However, the news front is quite lively. Trump's major infrastructure bill has passed, and next Monday, a list of countries facing a 70% high tariff will be announced. He keeps reciting useless spells to Powell, and the family’s WLFI has started issuing tokens to siphon off funds. Musk has announced the establishment of the American Party, diverting funds from the US stock market to blockchain. Recently, there has been significant movement from a whale holding 80,000 Bitcoins, resulting in a market drop. The already insufficient liquidity and market confidence have been further shaken by OKX's account risk control freeze, leaving investors anxious. Why is the market not dropping when it should? Is it a trap to induce short positions or long positions?
In the past six months, why has it been so difficult to double the capital in spot trading? Since buying the bottom on April 7, the highest floating profit in my actual account has only approached a doubling, and now it has nearly retraced. In these six months, besides shorting altcoins for profit, it feels like wasted time; being out of the market is better than holding coins. The profit dividends from altcoins in the secondary market have almost disappeared, and for the next round, Sister Bei plans to focus solely on Bitcoin to avoid unnecessary struggles and earn little.
In the short term, apart from Sol, which has formed a rising bull flag pattern, there isn’t much analysis to be done on the trends of other coins. Manage your position well and patiently wait; the bullish trend will likely last until August. Sister Bei has always been bullish, but today let's switch to a bearish mindset and discuss predictions for the larger weekly structures.
From Bitcoin's weekly chart, Sister Bei leans towards believing that new highs will still be reached. The market should start to improve around mid to late August, maintaining its current strong state. The middle band of the weekly Bollinger Bands at 95,000 may not even be breached; being pessimistic, the strong support would then be around 93,000. If a black swan event occurs, 89,000 would be the extreme limit.
The worst-case scenario is that we have already peaked, the bull market has ended, and we are facing a large double top structure, leading to endless declines. Although I believe this probability is extremely low. Even if we have reached a peak, Bitcoin should consolidate here for one to two months, providing a final escape window for funds in other mainstream altcoins. This will inevitably lead to a local altcoin market rally to complete a secondary recognition of the peak, trapping the last wave of investors before starting a bear market.
So even if we consider the worst-case scenario and use the logic of entering a bear market to judge, mainstream altcoins should still have a decent rebound to conclude. If this script plays out, mainstream coins like Sol and Pepe may not break their previous highs again, but reaching 70-80% of their previous highs is not an unrealistic expectation. For instance, Sol rebounding to 200 and Pepe to 2000 still has the potential for doubling, so let’s watch and see.
The major drop in the 34th month saw mainstream coins undergo a complete weekly adjustment. Sol has retraced 68% from its previous high of 95, while Pepe has retraced 81% from its previous high of 525. This rebound hasn’t seen much increase; if we experience another weekly level double bottom in the next month, then key support levels like Sol at 110 and Pepe at 600 could be good entry points for a big bet, as long as you manage your position well. A significant drop could actually present the best opportunity, and if such a chance arises, Sister Bei would not hesitate to use low leverage to go long.
So, being pessimistic isn’t so scary after all. Lowering expectations will improve the mindset. Thinking positively, if Bitcoin can break new highs and widen the distance of the double top, destroying the double top structure, it would be normal for mainstream altcoins to reach new highs as well. The fourth quarter's market is still quite promising. Stay confident, be patient, and don’t fall in the darkness before dawn. Let’s encourage each other and aim for great results together!
$BTC $SOL $PEPE #现货与合约策略 #大而美法案 #比特币巨鲸动向 #马斯克计划成立美国党 #美国加征关税
