In the current environment of generally low market sentiment and unclear direction, we may be in the last period of calm before the next round of altcoin explosions. Unlike a general rise, the future market will be driven by narratives such as ETFs, core yields, and institutional adoption.

At this stage, 99% of market participants are choosing to wait on the sidelines due to exhaustion or indecision, while only that 1% is quietly completing trades that can impact a lifetime.

Signals of altcoin season emerging

Just last week, Bitcoin set a record monthly closing price, but market dominance began to decline. At the same time, whales quietly accumulated over 1 million ETH in a single day, approximately $3 billion, while Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows.

Retail investors are still on the sidelines, maintaining a skeptical attitude. Sentiment indicators are at low levels—this is precisely the ideal market state for early entrants.

Everything is brewing at this moment.

Currently, the altcoin speculation index remains below 20%, and the ETH/BTC pair has finally recorded its first weekly bullish candle in weeks. The approval of the Solana ETF is a done deal. The rotation of on-chain capital has quietly begun, with funds subtly flowing towards DeFi, real-world assets (RWA), and restaking that align with market narratives.

But this is not 2021, that kind of 'full rise' behavior will not repeat.

The upcoming market will be more selective, deeply driven by narratives. Capital is flowing towards real yields, cross-chain abstract infrastructure, and ETF structured assets with staking yield mechanisms.

If you have been quietly accumulating, this is your signal.

What macro narratives should we focus on?

Although geopolitical turmoil may still severely impact the market, structural buyers are continuously absorbing each decline. Altcoins will not see a 'general rise' like in 2021; instead, narratives with actual catalysts (such as ETFs, real income, exchange distribution channels) will draw attention away from pure meme speculation.

After three months of sideways movement and the buildup of short leverage, geopolitical panic has only spurred liquidity grabs, pushing chips from uncertain holders to long-term accounts. ETFs continue to absorb circulating chips, with each macro disturbance accelerating this transfer. BTC is currently fluctuating around $108,000, which is lower than the recent peak but still above the 'buy' range in the rainbow valuation model (i.e. below $94,000).

Charging up before the jump?

While seasonal statistics indicate that the Q3 market may be relatively flat, two structural forces are breaking this trend:

Stable buying from ETFs: 2024's experience indicates that stable ETF capital inflows create a structural bottom. Once miner sell pressure further diminishes and chips continue to flow into corporate treasuries, BTC may quickly surge to $130,000 once it gains momentum.

Leading the US stock market: The S&P 500 index reached a new high on June 27, while Bitcoin is lagging. Historically, this gap is often repaired by BTC within 4 to 8 weeks. If overall risk appetite remains optimistic, the crypto market may simply be 'lagging' rather than 'failing'.

The only altcoin narrative worth paying attention to right now: Solana ETF

In a market that is extremely lacking in 'the next big event' narrative, Solana spot ETF becomes the only topic with institutional-level weight. The SEC's review window for four ETF applications (VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise) officially opened in January this year, with a final ruling expected by September at the latest.

If the future Solana ETF structure includes staking rewards, its role will shift from 'high Beta L1 trading target' to 'quasi-yielding digital equity'. This will lead to staking-related targets (like JTO, MNDE) being included in the ETF narrative. Currently, the price of SOL below $150 is no longer pure speculation but rather an early layout for 'ETF packaged trading'.

Fundamentals supporting DeFi

Despite meme coins and rotation narratives dominating the discussions on platform X, on-chain protocols with real cash flow are quietly gaining strength.

Meme coins

The perpetual contracts recently launched by Binance are showing a 'pump and dump' trading model: these low liquidity assets are being pumped through perpetual contracts, with funding rates quickly turning negative, and marketers are packaging it as 'sector rotation'. In essence, most of these trades are extraction-based—non-value creating. It is recommended to either accept it as a 'Ponzi scheme' and set clear stop-loss and take-profit points or simply ignore it entirely.

The same warning applies to meme coins on the Base chain (such as $USELESS, $AURA), which can surge 10 times in a day but may also plummet 70%.

Newly issued projects and structural positives

Robinhood enters L2: Robinhood has chosen Arbitrum Orbit as its L2 solution and is promoting the development of tokenized stocks. This reinforces the 'exchange chain' theory pioneered by Coinbase's Base. Robinhood may leverage its millions of users to boost user activity in Ethereum L2, potentially sparking a wave during the usual summer trading lull.

The recent token prices of $H (Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA (Sahara AI) indicate that even after a significant initial sell-off, as long as the team has a credible plan and a verifiable roadmap, their tokens can still attract positive market buying in secondary trading.

Investment framework for Q3 2025

Core positions: Continuously allocate a large amount of BTC until the outflow of ETFs significantly exceeds inflow (no such sign has appeared yet).

Rotation Beta: Continuously build positions in SOL below $150, treating it as an alternative choice to ETFs, and pairing with $JTO and $MNDE$JUP for potential yield enhancement.

Fundamental DeFi portfolio: Equal weight allocation of $SYRUP, $LQTY, $EUL, $FLUID; when any one project performs outstandingly, profits will be rotated to underperforming projects.

Speculative positions: Limit the risk exposure of meme coins to within 5% of total net asset value; treat every meme coin on Binance perpetual contracts as weekly options trading—taking small costs for high returns and setting strict stop-loss points.

Event-driven: Track milestone events for Robinhood L2; pre-position catalysts related to user growth within the Arbitrum ecosystem tokens.