#现货与合约策略

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) consists of the fast line DIF, the slow line DEA, and the histogram BAR. Below is a simplified complete explanation:

1. Core Composition and Calculation

1. DIF (Fast Line):

Calculation: DIF = Short-term EMA (usually 12 days) - Long-term EMA (usually 26 days), reflecting the price difference between short-term and long-term.

2. DEA (Slow Line):

Calculation: DEA = 9-day EMA of DIF, which is a smoothing of DIF and lags behind it.

3. BAR (Histogram):

Calculation: BAR = DIF - DEA, positive values are red bars (above the zero axis), negative values are green bars (below the zero axis), and the length reflects the strength of bullish and bearish momentum.

2. Core Signals and Application Logic

1. Golden Cross and Death Cross:

Golden Cross: DIF crosses above DEA from below; if it occurs below the zero axis and BAR changes from green to red, it is considered a bullish signal (e.g., stock price rebounds from a low).

Death Cross: DIF crosses below DEA from above; if it occurs above the zero axis and BAR changes from red to green, it is considered a bearish signal (e.g., stock price corrects from a high).

2. Zero Axis Position Judgment of Bullish and Bearish:

When DIF and DEA are above the zero axis, the market is generally bullish; when below the zero axis, the market is generally bearish.

3. Strength of Histogram (BAR):

Red bar lengthens: Bullish momentum strengthens; red bar shortens: Bullish momentum weakens.

Green bar lengthens: Bearish momentum strengthens; green bar shortens: Bearish momentum weakens.

4. Divergence at Tops and Bottoms:

Top Divergence: Stock price hits a new high, but DIF does not reach a new high, indicating that upward momentum is weakening, possibly signaling a top.

Bottom Divergence: Stock price hits a new low, but DIF does not reach a new low, indicating that downward momentum is weakening, possibly signaling a bottom.

3. Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantages:

1. Balances trend and momentum, suitable for medium to long-term judgment of major cycle trends.

2. Divergence signals are highly effective for judging tops/bottoms.

Disadvantages:

1. Lags behind price fluctuations, unable to predict turning points in advance.

2. In a choppy market, golden cross/death cross occurs frequently, easily leading to misjudgment.

Usage Suggestions:

1. Combine with moving averages (e.g., 20-day moving average) to confirm trend direction and avoid counter-trend trading.

2. Divergence at tops and bottoms should be combined with trading volume (e.g., a volume increase during a bottom divergence rebound is more reliable).

3. Should not be used alone for short-term trading; can serve as a medium to long-term auxiliary indicator.