Yesterday, the US stock market was closed, and President Trump issued a new tax notification, leading to a significant drop in the crypto circle. Additionally, an ancient whale wallet from 2011 moved, transferring a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, which affected the short-term market and caused a direct drop of 2%. Some suspect it was the wallet of an ancient god, while there is currently no direct evidence. Bitcoin dropped to a low of 107,245 USD, and is now oscillating around 108,000 USD.
In my article (July 4 analysis: Bitcoin 'Doji' reversal signal! Will there still be a bull market in the crypto circle in the second half of the year? A major event next week! On-chain golden dogs will soar a hundred times again!), I mentioned that the current price fell to 109,000, and contract trading slowed down, indicating a lack of momentum, so it’s safe to short. Currently, I've already made an 87.54% profit.
Bitcoin performed strongly last night, quickly rebounding after testing 107,200 twice in the early morning. Compared to the low of 107,500 earlier, volume decreased, showing a bottom divergence signal, and it may be worth considering a light long position. Such small signals appear almost every night, and I have mentioned them; those who listened won't lose at least.
ETH touched a low of 2,473 in the early morning, close to the 2,466 support level, forming a small double bottom. It has now rebounded to 2,500 and is slowly rising in the short term. Last night, I held my position at 2,510 without exiting, and the 2,466 replenishment has not triggered. Although the early morning market was good, it is not suitable for elderly individuals who stay up late.
The weekend market will be based on the early morning low point, and the lower bound will likely not touch the low point again. Pay attention to today's rebound high points; if BTC rebounds to 109,000 and ETH to 2,542, the weekend will enter a standard oscillation and repair phase. Avoid chasing long or short positions, only look for ultra-short reversal signals at support and resistance levels: observe long signals near the support level and look for short signals near the resistance level.
Recent key support and resistance levels:
BTC: 112,000 / 109,500 / 107,507 / 106,132 / 104,757
ETH: 2,585 / 2,542 / 2,466 / 2,403 / 2,343
Note: These levels can be gradually monitored over the weekend. At the moment these levels are approached, look for long and short signals based on volume and price relationships!
Grayscale's mainstream coin comprehensive ETF has been urgently halted!
Grayscale's mainstream coin comprehensive ETF was just approved and has now been canceled, negatively impacting the crypto circle. As the first spot ETF to reach the approval deadline, its cancellation brings considerable uncertainty to other pending ETFs like LTC, XRP, SOL, DOGE, etc.
The probability of SOL being approved for a spot ETF is the highest, with a futures ETF already approved, and Wall Street giants have also submitted their ETF applications. As a decentralized public chain, its advantages are clear.
DOGE is completely decentralized, but the disadvantage is that it has not yet been approved for a futures ETF, while BTC and ETH both went through a futures ETF before being approved for a spot ETF.
Currently, only SOL and XRP have futures ETFs, so SOL has the highest probability of being approved for a spot ETF in October.
Altcoin layout
The lowest risk strategy is to wait until the Bitcoin pullback ends and breaks through, then go long on small coins without needing to speculate on direction. Bitcoin broke out and surged early Wednesday morning, and I immediately suggested everyone enter PEPE and SUI. Last night, small coins pulled back by 10%, and can now be bought back at a low price.
I arranged the weekend expenses for everyone; hifi perfectly dropped to the target. It fell by more than ten points. Perfectly achieved 342%.
DINO previously increased by a hundred times, and we once saw nearly a 40% increase in one day. Currently, I bought 4000u to bet on an oversold rebound.
Additionally, focus on high-quality projects that are oversold and have market consensus.
In sectors like AI concepts, RWA (real-world assets), modular public chains, etc., including coins like LDO, ARB, S, clear buying signals must be awaited before acting. Those at the top of the crypto circle make big money, while those at the bottom suffer heavy losses! The market always has good or bad news, and one must combine trends, market conditions, news, and fundamentals to enhance understanding. The future of the crypto circle is no longer an era where simply holding will make you rich!
On-chain
Recently playing with memecoins, just pay attention to two platforms: bonk_fun and jup_studio.
BONK.fun has a high probability of producing golden dogs, and has performed brilliantly recently: USELESS increased by 280 million in a month, IKUN increased by 20 million in a week, and #旺柴 broke 3 million in one night, truly embodying 'bonk products are guaranteed to be of high quality.'
Jup Studio has just launched, with a low launch volume but quick rotation of leaders, $URANUS breaking 15 million. The platform has few tokens, with a market cap limit of tens of millions, making the probability of filtering out golden dogs high, and small market cap odds are even better.
