Yesterday, the market saw a brief decline, but looking at on-chain data: several Bitcoin addresses that hadn't moved since 2011 almost simultaneously dumped a total of 80,000 BTC — worth over 8 billion dollars at market price. It's known that these coins are early 'Coinbase rewards,' with their last breath lingering in the prehistoric era of block heights. Overnight, it set the record for 'the largest single-day liquidity of BTC dormant for over ten years,' and the previous move of 3,700 coins by a whale instantly became a small ripple.
Canary alert: subtle heartbeat on the BCH chain
Even more bizarre, an hour before the transfer, one of the associated addresses made a small test transaction on the (hard fork) legacy - Bitcoin Cash, and then immediately liquidated all BCH. Conor Grogan likened this action to 'the canary in the coal mine': BCH has low transaction fees and little attention, just right for quietly verifying if the private key is still under control. Only those who are well-versed in the 2017 fork would think of using BCH for an 'invisible health check.'
Two narratives unfold: a thief's conspiracy or the return of the OG?
One script is quite thrilling: a hacker finds an old hard drive, first tests the waters with BCH, confirms the private key is intact, then sweeps away 8 billion dollars.
Another script unfolds naturally: an OG who mined during the PC era, after enduring for 14 years, seizes the opportunity as the spot ETF opens up and the market matures, first tests the key with BCH, then moves the scattered old coins to a multi-signature or hardware wallet for a security upgrade — even paving the way for a family trust.
Ironically, the evidence on the same chain simultaneously supports completely opposite stories.
If this is indeed theft, it is a patient assault on 'ancient cold storage': perhaps the private key was captured by malicious software long ago, or perhaps the hard drive made its way to the second-hand market years later. Unlike the heated battles targeting active infrastructures like Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, and Ronin, this feels more like an archaeological-style sleight of hand - eyeing the sleeping beauty that is hanging on the ledger but unguarded. The initial anonymity of Bitcoin quietly turned a large inheritance into an eternal honey pot.
On-chain tracking companies have discovered that these 80,000 BTC are currently sitting quietly in a brand new address, without being split or flowing to exchanges, only causing the market to sweat nervously: the price of coins instantaneously dipped from 109k to 107.5k, and the delicious long leverage was liquidated. During this information vacuum period, sentiment defaults to 'this might crash the market.' What I care more about is that this series of transfers looks very much like capital consolidation or wallet upgrades, which instead adds weight to the 'cautious OG.'
A BCH test transaction is both a smokescreen for the thief and a fuse for the old players.
We can only watch the block explorer, waiting for the next move.
Regardless of where the truth lies, this ghost of 8 billion dollars reminds us: on a completely transparent ledger, history never remains silent, and every coin left in the past may stir up waves in the future. On-chain forensics has become a new microscope for interpreting the market's pulse — those digital-age Sherlocks are writing one suspenseful history after another with hash values.
Little Meow's personal summary:
Ancient whales moved 8 wallets, each with 10,000 BTC, which indeed frightened many people, and the market responded accordingly. But looking back, previous events like the compensation in Mentougou, Plustoken liquidation, and government sell-offs... these 'swords of Damocles' ultimately only caused emotional fluctuations, with almost no impact on the daily trend.
This time is no different; short-term players have little problem avoiding the issue, but mid-to-long term holders should not be scared out of the market, as this is a classic cutting loss trap. BTC is still stable between 107420-110000, showing no signs of weakness.
That's all for the article! If you are confused in the crypto world, consider joining me to layout and harvest from the market makers!
