I have never seen the crypto circle so divided!
This morning I woke up to see Bitcoin plummeting to 101,000. At first, I thought something major had happened, but I didn’t think much of it.
Later I brushed through X and finally understood the situation - the 'black swan' really came: the world's richest and most powerful people openly clashed on X, directly igniting market sentiment, causing a complete collapse in crypto and tech stocks.
Let's continue to observe. Wall Street giant BlackRock has increased its holdings from 70,000 to a peak, and is now beginning to take profits at a high level; on the other hand, Bitcoin's inventory on exchanges continues to hit new lows, indicating that a large amount of Bitcoin is being transferred out for accumulation. Who is lying?
Even more bizarre, ETF funds suddenly shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with retail investors also cutting losses at low points and chasing high at above 100,000, becoming the standard 'buy high sell low' bag holders. This is why institutions continue to earn more, while retail investors are frequently harvested.
However, on-chain data does not align with bearish sentiment. Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, indicating that someone is quietly accumulating coins. This is very likely the operation of MicroStrategy - they hold 580,000 BTC and typically only buy and not sell, relying on price increases to maintain market confidence. Compared to hedge funds that engage in short-term arbitrage, MicroStrategy is more like a guardian of Bitcoin consensus.
Ethereum also confirms this: the price has doubled, but outflows from exchanges are not obvious. This indicates that ETH is more like the main force unloading, rather than building momentum.
In summary, the current trend resembles a topping distribution phase. Once the distribution is complete, the main force is likely to turn to a bearish stance and re-accumulate. Operations like Spoofy are no longer a secret game in the crypto circle.
Having discussed the main market, let's take a look at the opportunities in smaller coins.
Next, two coins are about to face a massive unlocking:
ZK: On June 17, 768 million coins will be unlocked, accounting for 21% of the current circulation. This level of selling pressure is quite considerable. We shorted in advance at the high point yesterday, and it has already dropped 10% today, but the market hasn't ended yet; subsequent rebounds still provide good shorting opportunities, targeting all the way to the unlocking day.
ZRO: On June 20, tokens worth approximately $60 million will be unlocked, accounting for 23% of the circulation. The downward pressure is also significant, making it suitable as a high-quality shorting target.
In an environment of market fluctuations or corrections, these types of unlocked coins often drop harder; even if the overall market rises, they will be restricted in their gains due to negative pressure. Many retail investors are unaware of this information, which is precisely the information gap we can take advantage of.
In addition, there have also been noticeable movements in the US stock market. The Nasdaq and S&P both broke their previous highs this morning, surging significantly. However, they are not far from their historical highs, and there is considerable technical correction pressure.
Continue talking, the current market is not entirely without good news.
For example, GDP growth expectations were significantly raised from 2.2% to 4.6%, which is also one of the main driving forces behind the consecutive rise of the Nasdaq. However, this type of good news is short-term; in the long run, an overheating economy may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and continue to maintain high rates to cope with the upcoming tariff-driven inflation.
The side effects of tariffs may soon become apparent - this Friday's non-farm employment data is expected to decline sharply, and the market needs to be highly vigilant. Next week's CPI data may also unexpectedly rise. If these two negative factors materialize, market sentiment is likely to reverse, and whether in the US stock market or the crypto circle, it will be difficult to remain unaffected.
Meanwhile, public opinion is also heating up: Musk rarely lashes out, angrily criticizing the latest congressional spending bill that would lead to an additional $2.5 trillion deficit, stating that this is heading towards bankruptcy.
Considering the current trend, I believe that risk assets like Bitcoin are likely to enter a correction period after completing the topping distribution, with the bottom probably appearing in July or August.
Continuously pay attention: $$$BTC
I am a root contributor, with years of experience in the crypto circle. I mainly focus on fresh content as a blogger. Follow me, check my homepage, and I will share my years of experience in the crypto circle every day!
