"One day in the crypto world, ten years in the human world: BTC's life-and-death speed at the crossroads."
The candlestick chart is the pulse of the market; if you can't keep up with the heartbeat, even the hardest ship will sink in the waves!
Today's BTC movement can be described as the "Chu River and Han Border" of bull and bear games—breaking below the $107,000 mark three times without success, with volume shrinking to an extremely low level, the long lower shadow in the candlestick chart looks just like the "footprint" of bears retreating after a test.
Technical aspect: low volume fluctuation, sign of a trend change.
The current market presents a typical "volume contraction and fluctuation" structure: after the 5-hour moving average formed a death cross and continued to press down, the 60-hour moving average has been horizontally flat as solid as a rock. This pattern of "short-term bearish + medium-term flat" is often the calm before a trend change. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator has seen a negative growth for 7 consecutive days, and off-market funds are still watching—those retail investors shouting to "buy the dip" are honestly choosing to remain inactive.
Historical experience is worth referencing: in October 2023, BTC also saw a volume contraction at the $26,000 mark, with the market generally expecting a further drop of 20%. As a result, due to the news of Grayscale winning the ETF approval, it directly pulled out a 30% bullish candlestick. Low volume does not necessarily mean low price, but human nature forever swings between fear and greed.
Fundamentals: Institutions building a bottom VS historical landmines.
Today's conflict focuses on institutional buying versus historical selling pressure:
BlackRock is creating a "safety cushion": this giant increased its holdings by another 2,360 BTC yesterday, and its BTC trust (IBIT) has surpassed $58.5 billion. More critically, MicroStrategy's cost line for holding BTC has dropped to $17,000 per coin, and the current price is more than six times its cost; this kind of "no room to fall" holding structure essentially builds a psychological safety cushion for the market.
The "time bomb" of Mt. Gox is still ticking: although the repayment plan for 850,000 BTC has been launched, whether creditors will concentrate on selling remains uncertain. Referring to the 2014 Mt. Gox incident, the BTC price took 3 years to digest the selling pressure. If a concentrated cash-out occurs this time, the $100,000 mark may face a second test.
Candlestick Judge · Writing as a decree: Fluctuation is the main melody, direction choice is imminent.
Mastering Candlesticks: The ultimate trading secret: This week, BTC will complete its "final drop" in the $105,000-$110,000 range.
Institutional holding cost creates a natural barrier: the average holding cost for giants like BlackRock and Grayscale is in the $30,000-$40,000 range, and the current price is already 2-3 times their profit, making the probability of actively smashing the market very low.
There is a "false breakout" trap in the technical aspect: if tomorrow closes with a significant bullish candlestick, it will form a "triple bottom" structure; if it breaks below $105,000, then caution should be exercised for a potential CME futures gap fill (around $104,000).
The news front has entered a vacuum period: the expectation of a Fed rate cut in July has been fully digested, and the probability of policy changes before the U.S. elections is low. The market is waiting for the July 10 CPI data as the "starting gun."
For specific buying and selling points and positions, pay attention to the candlestick judge's homepage, in the introduction section.
Which side are you prepared to bet on?
At this moment, both bulls and bears are waiting for that "starting gun"—will it be a slow bull market driven by institutional funds, or a panic sell-off triggered by historical landmines? As stated in the Bitcoin white paper: "You cannot delete transactions that have already happened, but you can decide the direction of future transactions."
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