Morning Thoughts on July 4, 2025

Yesterday's daily line closed above 108800, showing a strong upward trend, but the long upper shadow also indicates significant resistance above.

Looking back at last night, after the Nasdaq closed, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around 110000, then fell back under pressure from short-term profit-taking, fluctuating narrowly in the 110000-109300 range. The current market's volatility has narrowed, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment. From a technical indicator perspective, the hourly Bollinger Bands (BOLL) have shifted from divergence to parallel, indicating a significant reduction in short-term volatility, with the market entering a consolidation phase where the middle band becomes a key point of contention; the MACD dual lines are running parallel and downward below the zero line, with green bars maintaining a weak expansion. Although short-term bearish sentiment prevails, momentum has not further strengthened, and the overall shape leans towards a consolidation buildup.

Trading Suggestions: If Bitcoin falls back to around 107700-108500, look for upward opportunities, targeting 110000-111500; if it rebounds to around 110000-110500, consider lightly shorting, targeting downward to 109000-108500.

For Ethereum, if it falls back to around 2585-2565, watch for a rebound, targeting 2605-2635; if it rebounds to around 2630-2660, consider trying to short, targeting 2560-2530. #非农就业数据来袭 #BTC重返11万 #币安Alpha上新 #特朗普马斯克分歧