📈 $BTC (2025-07-04 07:46) | Bull-Bear Trend Index: 76 / 100 (Strong Continuation)
BTC continues to stay above 109,000, with solid support on daily and weekly trends. In the short term, there is a slight pullback, but the overall structure remains intact, and the 4H trend is still healthy. We are currently in a strong volatile consolidation period; if 109,800 is effectively broken, it will form second upward momentum.
🔹 Multi-period K-line trend assessment:
15-minute chart: Price is consolidating at a high level, with MA7/25/99 moving averages converging below support, MACD slightly weak, RSI retreated to 44.4, short-term momentum is temporarily paused;
1-hour chart: After rising, it is consolidating at a high level, standing above three moving averages, MACD is turning down but still in a strong zone, RSI 54.1, showing neutral to strong bias;
4-hour chart: After steady upward movement, it enters a consolidation zone, MA system maintains a bullish arrangement, MACD continues to expand but momentum slightly weakens, RSI 61.6, momentum still exists;
Daily chart: Continuously breaking previous highs, currently retracing without breaking, MACD golden cross expanding, RSI maintains at 60.0, structural support is complete;
Weekly chart: Maintains the upward channel, MA system provides good support, MACD golden cross is strongly diverging, RSI rises to 64.2, providing support for a medium to long-term bullish outlook.
📊 Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: 4H/1H still maintains a strong golden cross, although there is a short-term pullback, it has not broken; daily and weekly charts both maintain bullish expansion structure;
RSI: 1H retreated to a neutral to strong range, 4H remains high, daily and weekly charts rising in sync, reflecting that the overall trend has not been weakened;
Moving Average System: Short, medium, and long-term moving averages are all in bullish arrangement for the entire cycle, especially the 4H/daily structure is solid, with 109,200 as important support;
Trading Volume: Trading volume has moderately decreased over the past 24 hours, reflecting that the market is in a consolidation and preparation stage. If volume breaks through 109,800, it will form a new round of upward movement.
🌐 Macroeconomic News Summary (Last 24 hours):
1. [Bloomberg July 3, 21:10] The US SEC released "Digital Asset Compliance Update Guidelines," focusing on spot ETFs for key review areas, interpreted by the market as marginally positive regulatory news;
2. [Coindesk July 3, 19:30] MicroStrategy announced an additional purchase of $120 million worth of BTC, continuing to implement the "Bitcoin First" strategy;
3. [CNBC July 3, 20:50] The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released signals of "cooling inflation," with the probability of rate cuts in September soaring to 67%, leading risk assets to rise in tandem.