Non-farm payroll bombshell shakes the crypto market!
Unemployment rate at 4.1% wreaks havoc in the market, $6 billion liquidation zone is ready, and the secret to bottom-fishing is revealed!
Tonight (July 3rd, 20:30), the U.S. will release the June non-farm payroll data, announced a day early due to Independence Day holidays. The market expects 110,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, but two key risk points need to be monitored:
1. Core data and market correlation
Expectation divergence: If the actual data turns out stronger than anticipated, as some institutions predict, it may completely eliminate the expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, driving the dollar up and triggering a sell-off in the crypto market.
Historical lesson: The non-farm data in May exceeded expectations, causing BTC to plummet $3000 in one hour, resulting in $3.7 billion in liquidations. If the data is strong this time, it may replicate the trend of “dollar up, crypto down.”
Data trap: Recently, non-farm data often shows “new values strong but previous values revised down,” creating false market trends. Tonight, it’s crucial to pay attention to whether the data for April-May will be revised down.
2. On-chain warning signals
Grayscale transferred 18,000 ETH to exchanges, suspected to prepare for a sell-off.
Binance BTC funding rate dropped to -0.23%, indicating dominance of short positions.
Around $67,200, there is a pile-up of $630 million in liquidation orders; a sharp drop could trigger a series of liquidations.
Operational logic
Don’t blindly chase during a sharp drop: Placing a limit order at $108,500 to bet on a rebound may be tempting, but if it falls below $107,000, stop-loss is necessary, as this is a key support level on the weekly chart.
Hedging priority: If data leads to a rebound that entices longs, consider using 3% of your position to open a short hedge, rather than chasing higher prices.
Beware of institutional traps: Market makers often place false breakout sell orders around $109,200 to entice longs, retail investors should avoid this area.
Viewpoint: The current market has priced in a rate cut in September, but if tonight's data completely crushes expectations, the crypto market may face a mass exit of billions in capital. Maintaining a light position and observing is the best strategy; leveraged traders are easily made victims in the “graveyard of bulls.”
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