Judge's exclusive decoding: If non-farm data is below 150,000, Bitcoin will directly pierce through 120,000!
Fellow crypto enthusiasts, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night! Just now, Greeks.Live analyst Adam dropped a heavy bomb - bullish sentiment has completely ignited, with 110,000 USD for Bitcoin becoming the critical line of life and death! Even more exciting, the U.S. non-farm data is about to be released at 8:30 PM tonight, followed by the opening of U.S. stocks; three-fold impacts may ignite the market at any moment!
One, 110,000 USD: Bitcoin's 'Battle of the Titans'
According to on-chain data monitoring, the current Bitcoin bull-bear game has entered a white-hot stage. 110,000 USD is not only a historical strong resistance level from a technical perspective, but also a 'faith checkpoint' from a market psychology standpoint. Once broken, it will completely open upward space, with some institutions calling out '150,000 USD is not a dream'; however, if it falls below, a short-term correction could head straight for the 90,000 USD support level.
Even more explosive is that community sentiment has shifted from caution to frenzy! Greeks.Live's survey shows that over 70% of traders believe 'Bitcoin will break through 110,000 in July,' and some are betting 'tonight's non-farm data will exceed expectations, directly pushing to 120,000'! This extreme bullish sentiment often hints that a shift is imminent - will it be a violent surge or a trap for the naive? We will find out tonight!
Two, Non-farm Data: The Federal Reserve's 'Rate Hike Code'
The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June, announced at 8:30 PM tonight, is considered a 'nuclear-level' event for the crypto market. The quality of the data directly impacts the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision, thus determining the global flow of funds:
If the non-farm data is strong (over 200,000 new jobs): Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike will rise, the U.S. dollar index will soar, and risk assets like Bitcoin may face a 'bloodbath', with the support level of 110,000 USD at risk! If the non-farm data is weak (under 150,000 new jobs): Expectations for a rate cut may rise again, liquidity flooding may push up asset prices, and Bitcoin may break through 110,000, even challenging historical highs!
Historical case: In May 2024, non-farm data exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin plummeted 8% in a single day; while in August of the same year, weak data resulted in Bitcoin soaring 15% in a week. Will history repeat itself tonight?
Three, U.S. Stock Market Opening: The 'Weather Vane' of the Crypto Market
The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the crypto market has been increasing. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, the performance of tech stocks will directly influence the short-term direction of Bitcoin:
If the NASDAQ opens high and rises: It indicates an increase in market risk appetite, and Bitcoin may follow suit, easily breaking through the resistance level of 110,000; if the NASDAQ opens low and declines: Risk-averse sentiment may rise, and Bitcoin may face sell-offs, potentially triggering a chain liquidation (according to on-chain data, current Bitcoin futures long positions have exceeded $5 billion, with a very high risk of liquidation)!
Key signals: Pay attention to the stock price performance of tech giants like Tesla and NVIDIA, as well as the volatility of Bitcoin within the first hour after the U.S. stock market opens (currently soaring to 120%, far exceeding normal levels)!
Four, SOL ETF Approval: The hidden 'super catalyst'
In addition to short-term events, the progress of SOL spot ETF approval is also stirring the market from behind the scenes. According to the latest news, the SEC has requested eight issuers (including CoinShares) to supplement details on staking provisions, with the probability of approval skyrocketing to 90%! Once the SOL ETF is approved, it is expected to attract an incremental capital of 2-5 billion USD, directly boosting SOL prices and reviving sentiment across the entire crypto market.
More importantly: The approval time window for the SOL ETF (mid to late July) highly coincides with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (July 31). If both create a 'policy + funding' dual benefit, Bitcoin may break through 110,000, possibly starting a new bull market!
Five, K-line Judge: Supreme Unique Strategy! How to operate tonight?
Spot holders: If Bitcoin breaks through 110,000, consider taking partial profits; if it falls below 105,000, decisively stop loss to avoid deep entrapment.
Contract traders: Beware of high leverage liquidation risks, it is recommended to set a forced liquidation line of 5%-8%, and closely monitor the volatility within 15 minutes after the non-farm data is released.
Long-term investors: Ignore short-term noise and focus on the progress of SOL ETF approval and shifts in Federal Reserve policy; July may be the best layout window this year!
Final reminder: The crypto market is highly volatile, this article does not constitute investment advice, but one thing is certain - tonight is destined to be an extraordinary night! Will we witness history, or become history? Lock the screen, and let's witness together!
Eight years in the financial world, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the crypto space: Insight into the market, steady progress, focus on K-line Judge teaching you how to steadily appreciate value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world! #BTC重返11万