Dear cryptocurrency friends, the non-farm data released at 6 AM today directly detonated the market! Originally, the market expected only 80,000 new jobs, but the Labor Department threw out a bombshell—110,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%! This set of data directly shattered the fantasy of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July, and at this moment, the K-line of Bitcoin (BTC) is standing on the edge of a cliff!

1. The 'policy strangulation' behind the non-farm data: Is it Trump's fault for Powell to bear?

This time, the weak non-farm data is essentially a chain reaction of Trump's 'anti-growth policies'. Since winning the 2024 election, Trump has wielded tariffs, massively expelled immigrants, and cut government spending, directly driving corporate confidence into the icehouse. Experts from Yale University bluntly stated: 'Business owners dare not accept orders for the next quarter; how can they hire anyone?'

What’s more ruthless is the data revision trap—non-farm data for the first five months of this year has been continuously revised down, with over 400,000 jobs 'evaporating'. Pantheon Macroeconomics warned: 'The 110,000 added in June may be an illusion; the actual value might be cut by another 30,000!' This means that the U.S. job market may have fallen into a 'technical recession', but the Federal Reserve is afraid to act rashly due to inflation risks.

2. The Federal Reserve 'stays put': The probability of a rate cut in July plummeted from 75% to 20%!

Just before the non-farm data release, the market was still fantasizing about the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July to rescue the market. But Powell poured cold water during the congressional hearing: 'The economy and job market are still strong, I don’t think there’s any need to rush.' Data shows that opposition to rate cuts within the Fed has surged, with 7 officials publicly dissenting, accounting for nearly 37%!

What’s more painful is that inflation's ghost lingers. The Federal Reserve's latest forecast raised the 2025 PCE price index from 2.7% to 3.0%. Powell admitted: 'Tariff policies may trigger a second round of inflation shock; we must remain vigilant!' In other words, even if employment data collapses, the Federal Reserve may prioritize protecting prices over saving the stock market and cryptocurrency sector.

3. Bitcoin's 'life and death moment': Is $116,000 the top or the bottom?

After the non-farm data was released, BTC price experienced wild fluctuations, plunging to $107,800 at 3 AM before violently rebounding to $108,200. Behind this 'roller coaster' is fierce competition for institutional funds:

  1. Technical indicators show bearish signals exploding.

    • The 4-hour chart shows BTC breaking below the key support level of $108,500, the Bollinger Bands opening downwards, and the MACD showing a death cross.

    • The super trend indicator turned bearish at $108,450, and the parabolic SAR indicator is pressing down, signaling a resurgence of bearish forces.

    • Liquidity gaps show that there are massive buy orders below $100,000, but a huge amount of sell orders is piled up in the $108,000-$110,000 range, indicating that a battle between bulls and bears is imminent!

  2. Institutional funds 'secretly maneuver'.

    • Despite the soaring retail sentiment, institutional accounts on Coinbase have seen a net outflow of over 20,000 BTC in the past 24 hours, worth $2.2 billion!

    • The market value of stablecoin USDT, however, has risen by $1.7 billion against the trend, showing that funds are swaying between 'hedging' and 'bottom fishing'.

    • XBIT exchange data shows that the BTC/USDT trading pair accounts for 60% of the platform's total trading volume, but the slippage rate for large orders is 40% lower than the industry average, suggesting that institutions are quietly accumulating positions.

  3. Historical patterns vs. real pressures.

    • Statistics show that BTC has averaged a 9.1% increase in July over the past 10 years, with explosive growth of 21.5% and 239% in 2017 and 2019, respectively!

    • But this year is special: the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle has not ended, Trump's policy black swans are frequent, and a global regulatory storm is approaching. XBIT analysts warn: 'Historical patterns may fail; BTC needs to break above $110,000 to confirm the continuation of a bull market!'

4. What should retail investors do? Three strategies for survival!

  1. Leverage traders, run fast!
    Current market volatility has surged to 85%, the 30-minute Stoch RSI shows an overbought death cross; forcibly increasing leverage could leave you with nothing! It is recommended to reduce leverage to below 3 times, or switch directly to contract ETFs.

  2. Spot traders build positions in batches.
    If BTC breaks below the support level of $107,000, consider buying in batches at $104,200 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level) and $103,250 (0.236 retracement level). But be sure to set a 5% stop-loss!

  3. Pay attention to compliant platforms like XBIT.
    In the regulatory storm, licensed exchanges like XBIT (such as the EU MiCA license) are safer. Their cross-chain liquidity aggregation protocol can reduce slippage by 40%, and the cost of large transactions is 30% lower than centralized exchanges, suitable for institutions and skilled players.

K-line judge · The decision is here: The calm before the storm?
At 9:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will also release June unemployment rate and average hourly wage data. If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, or if the hourly wage growth drops below 3.9%, BTC may face another bloodbath! But if the data unexpectedly turns good, bulls may take the opportunity to launch a 'short squeeze', challenging the $110,000 mark!

For specific buy and sell points and positions, follow the K-line judge's homepage, in the introduction section #BTC重返11万 .

$BTC