Now at the 155 position, Old Zhao wants to clarify things for everyone. The hottest catalyst right now is that the first SOL staking ETF in the US, code SSK, just launched yesterday, and the first-day trading volume reached 33.6 million USD with a net inflow of 12 million. This indicates that large funds are starting to enter the market through legitimate channels, rather than just retail investors making small trades. But don’t just watch the excitement; this ETF structure is different from spot ETFs like Bitcoin and Ethereum; it operates on a taxable corporation model, and dividends will be taxed, so its medium to long-term attractiveness needs to be observed.
From a technical perspective, the 155 position is right on the edge: to move up, it needs to first break through 160; only after overcoming this hurdle is there a chance to touch the May high of 187, and even mid-term opportunities to reach 220~300. If it drops, 149.7 is a solid support level; if it breaks, it might slide to 145.5 or even 144.7, so caution is warranted. The volume has been a bit low in recent days, with prices hovering between 150~155, a typical posture before a trend change; July is likely to choose a direction.
Institutional movements are quite active: SOL futures open interest has piled up to nearly 7 billion USD, and Bloomberg's two major analysts, Balchunas and Seyffart, have directly raised the probability of spot ETF approval this year to 95%. If this expectation takes off, the potential is significant. However, there are also hidden dangers — in the next two months alone, 585 million USD worth of SOL will be unlocked, and those DApps in the ecosystem (like Pump.fun) are still continuously selling off, with over 400 million USD worth of SOL flowing into exchanges this year, so be aware of this selling pressure.
Operationally, 155 is considered the dividing line for bulls and bears: if it holds, it can trend towards 165~175; if it falls below 149.7 and can't hold, short-term caution is needed, with 130 or even 115 potentially being reached. The MACD just showed a golden cross signal, the RSI is stuck at the neutral position of 50, and the funding rate isn't overheated, indicating that the market isn't crazy yet. In such times, waiting for a volume breakout is safer than chasing highs.
If you currently feel helpless or confused while trading in the crypto space, I hope my sharing can provide you with some inspiration and help! Old Zhao helps you stay one step ahead, creating an information gap with others!
#SOLETF $SOL