At the macro level, as the market previously generally expected, the conflict between Musk and Trump did not last long. This controversy quickly cooled within a day, and Musk ultimately adopted a conciliatory posture. From the outside, he seems to have chosen to concede, but in reality, this is a passive adjustment under pressure from multiple parties.
Whether it is SpaceX's reliance on government contracts, StarLink's compliance challenges in international markets, or shareholders' demand for stability, all forces Musk to show a certain degree of flexibility in his public stance. Even if he personally remains steadfast, the game of politics and capital allows little room for caprice.
However, at a deeper level, the conflict between Musk and Trump is not entirely resolved; it resembles a temporary balance. They have yet to solidify their respective camps, and under this backdrop, strategic avoidance and periodic weakness are quite normal.
This round of disputes has come to a close, and the market's attention shifts to more substantively impactful issues—trade barriers. Next Thursday (Beijing time) marks the deadline for the adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States. This point will become a key variable for market risk pricing.
On the U.S. side, a 'bombshell' economic data report has also attracted widespread attention. The ADP employment numbers for June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, marking the first negative value since the pandemic. This result conveys a significant decline in corporate confidence, indicating that the economy may have entered an initial cooling phase.
Of course, a change in January does not constitute a trend, but if future data continues to deteriorate, such as rising unemployment rates and frequent corporate layoffs, it will force a quicker adjustment of monetary policy. This is also the potential reason behind Trump's continuous pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
As a result of this data, risk assets rebounded across the board. The market bets that the Federal Reserve may have to initiate a loosening cycle in an attempt to halt the economic slowdown. However, according to CME's interest rate predictions, the probability of maintaining the current rate in July remains the highest, only decreasing by 4 percentage points from the previous day.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's short-term trend is stable. During the previous pullback, the market remained calm, and during yesterday's rebound, the bulls also showed no signs of fatigue. Overall turnover remains low, indicating that the current market is not driven by speculation but rather by rational bottom-fishing behavior.
Overall, Bitcoin has now returned above the trend line, with the potential for further upward movement. However, whether this new round of increases has sustainable momentum still requires observation of the inflow of incremental funds. On the support side, the $93,000-$98,000 range remains a solid defense line, while support in the $103,000-$107,500 range is also gradually solidifying.
