Event focus
At 20:30 tonight (US market time), the United States will release the June Non-Farm Employment Data and unemployment rate, which is the most significant macro event of the month! The market expects an unemployment rate of 4.3% (previous value 4.2%) and a non-farm employment population of 110,000 (previous value 139,000). If the data is worse than expected (bullish for BTC), liquidity easing expectations will rise, and BTC may violently break through the 110,000 mark; conversely, if the data is strong (bearish), the risk of a pullback will sharply increase!
Key technical points
From the chart, BTC is currently oscillating in a narrow range between 109,500 and 109,540, with intense competition between bulls and bears:
Bullish scenario: If the data is weak, after breaking 110,000, the Fibonacci 78.6% (108,739) will turn into support, targeting the previous high of 110,504!
Bearish scenario: If the data exceeds expectations, closely watch the 50% retracement level of 107,415; if it fails to hold, it may fall towards 38.2% (106,868) or even the strong support at 105,100!
Main capital flow direction
The commission ratio of -0.7% indicates short-term selling pressure, but the trading volume of 3.00k shows that the main force is ready to go. Note! If the price stabilizes above 109,540, short covering may trigger a surge; conversely, if it breaks below 109,000, follow-up selling may intensify.
Explosive strategy
Aggressive traders: Follow the trend after the data is released, buy on a break above 110,000, stop loss at 108,700; if it falls below 108,500, take a short position, targeting 106,800.
Conservative traders: Set a buy order at 105,100 to catch a rebound; or set a breakout order at 111,500 to benefit from the trend!
Warnings and opportunities
Historical data shows that BTC volatility often exceeds 5% on Non-Farm nights! Be sure to trade lightly with stop losses to avoid liquidation. But crisis is also opportunity—tonight may be the best time to make money in 2025!
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