Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Decide the Fate! Last Ditch Effort for Fed Rate Cut in July
Global traders hold their breath! Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. June non-farm data is about to be revealed—this could be the last hope for the Fed to cut rates in July.
Last night’s “little non-farm” ADP data unexpectedly collapsed, with employment numbers plummeting by 33,000 (the first negative growth in two years!), directly pushing gold to a high of $3,350, and market rate cut expectations skyrocketing.
The bullets are loaded, and the division within the Fed has reached a fever pitch: two governors appointed by Trump, Waller and Bowman, are shouting “must cut in July,” while Powell insists on “waiting for clarity on tariffs,” with the president angrily berating those he calls “wooden-headed” as the pressure intensifies. If tonight’s non-farm data disappoints, the probability of a rate cut in July will break through the 20% mark; if the data holds strong, the Fed may remain on hold until September.
An even more dangerous gamble lies ahead: the tariff suspension period ends on July 9, and Trump's “trade sword” is about to fall! The dollar has suffered its worst decline in half a century, and Goldman warns: if tonight’s data is weak, the dollar may face a new wave of selling, allowing the euro and yen to capitalize on the opportunity.
This is the ultimate showdown between political pressure and data belief—the trembling fingertips of global markets are just waiting for the non-farm data to light the fuse.
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