The U.S. money supply has just reached a new milestone, with the M2 money supply rising to an all-time high.

According to the latest data released, the U.S. M2 money supply (a key indicator reflecting the scale of cash, checking accounts, savings accounts, and money market deposits) reached a record $21.94 trillion at the end of May. Compared to the same period last year, this index has increased by 4.5%.

This marks the 19th consecutive month of growth for M2, surpassing the previous high of $21.86 trillion set in March 2022.

Notably, even after adjusting for inflation, M2 still grew by 2.1% year-on-year, marking the highest real growth rate in over two years. Since 2020, the total U.S. money supply has increased by nearly $7 trillion, a growth rate of 45%.

As liquidity surges, the dollar is weakening sharply. The dollar index fell 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst first half performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, and its worst six-month performance since the 2009 financial crisis.

The ongoing weakness of the dollar clearly reflects a decrease in purchasing power, exposing long-standing structural issues in the U.S. economy.

This is positive for Bitcoin.

For the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, the current abundant liquidity environment could become an important catalyst for attracting new capital inflows.

The continuous rise of the M2 index (which measures the money supply including cash, deposits, and savings) is generally seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin, the leading digital asset today. This reflects an excess of liquidity in the financial system, encouraging investors to seek opportunities in high-yield channels including Bitcoin, rather than sticking to less attractive traditional assets.

Although it is not yet confirmed whether this trend will open a new bullish cycle for Bitcoin, many investors still believe that the current environment is creating favorable conditions for the recovery of the largest cryptocurrency in the market.

Before Bitcoin entered a recent period of volatile trading, the price of Bitcoin showed signs of slowing down while M2 continued to rise, making this correlation even harder to predict. If the old pattern repeats, Bitcoin is likely to become an attractive destination for new funds seeking returns outside the traditional financial system.

Disappointing non-farm payrolls, old Powell is under investigation.

The ADP employment report, known as the 'small non-farm', was expected to show an increase of 99,000 jobs in June, but the figure released last night unexpectedly fell by 33,000, marking a significant drop and the first negative value in two years, indicating that the U.S. job market is rapidly deteriorating. U.S. stocks had a slight pullback early on but quickly rebounded, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices even reaching new highs.

Bitcoin had already risen to the level of $108,000 earlier due to old Ma's praise of Ah Chuan, and everyone thought they had reconciled. Then in the middle of the night, Bitcoin suddenly surged past $109,000, attributed not only to the disappointing non-farm data which stabilized market expectations for an early rate cut but also to news that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) requested Congress to investigate old Powell.

Old Powell has refused to cut interest rates since Ah Chuan took office, suspected of political bias in opposing Ah Chuan, and the FHFA's request for an investigation is about this matter. If he is indeed investigated by Congress, he may be suspended or may voluntarily resign under pressure, leading to the appointment of someone who supports rate cuts, which the market interprets as positive.

However, the non-farm data is already sufficient for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts at any time. If tonight’s non-farm employment changes and unemployment rate also turn out worse than expected, the chance of a rate cut in September is quite high. Given the current situation, as long as next week’s tariff negotiations do not bring negative news, or other bad news does not emerge, it is believed that the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market will maintain this upward momentum until the positive expectations for rate cuts materialize.